by Alex Evans | May 15, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, UK
How much should people in Britain worry about food security? Here’s a starter for ten, taken from a recent Guardian article by Harriet Green:
For three years, my husband has talked about taking to the hills. About buying a smallholding on Exmoor where, with our four-year-old daughter, we can safely survive the coming storm – famine, pestilence and a total breakdown of society. I would wait for his lectures to finish, then return to my own interests. I had no time for the end of civilisation. As an editor on a glossy magazine until a few months ago, I was too busy. There was always a new Anya Hindmarch bag to buy, or a George Clooney premiere to attend.
But recently, I’ve wavered. Much of what he has been predicting has come true: global economic meltdown, looming environmental disaster, a sharp rise in oil and food prices that has already led to the rationing of rice in the US, and riots in dozens of countries worldwide. This week, the details got scarier. The UN warned of a global food crisis, like a “silent tsunami”, while Opec predicts that oil, which broke through $100 (£50) a barrel for the first time a few weeks ago, may soon top $200.
In one sense, it’s no surprise that food figures so prominently in her list of concerns: along with shelter and water, after all, food is about as basic as human needs get. But on the other hand, you have to wonder: if you can afford Anya Hindmarch bags, do you really have anything to worry about on food prices? Isn’t the problem actually the converse – namely that as the global middle class grows, its appetite for meat and dairy products (and handbags too) also grows – taking staple grains out of the purchasing power reach of poorer consumers in the process?
Still, the fact remains: people in developed countries who think about resilience a lot are worried about food. John Robb, for instance, sees food as a critical dimension of his concept of the Resilient Community. Or look at the Transition Towns movement in Totnes, who are going nuts about food security (literally):
… the idea is to use town-wide plantings [of nut trees] to create a stock of healthy, productive trees that can serve as a great source of local food, and a buffer in times of scarcity. The reason that the group is concentrating on nut trees is their potential to outgrow cereal crops in terms of carbohydrates, and to utilise poorer soils with fewer inputs. The group has already planted hazelnuts, walnuts and almonds across the town …
So: how worried should we be in Britain, the US or other developed countries? Is it time to head for the hills? (more…)
by Charlie Edwards | Apr 23, 2008 | Influence and networks
Next week the Hudson Institute is holding a seminar on the future of the US defence industry. Before you stifle a yawn take a look at one of the scenarios they will be considering:
‘…hypothetical Chinese aggression towards Taiwan provokes a Sino-U.S. military confrontation. Initially, the technologically superior and network-centric American military is quickly devastated by the Chinese’ ability to activate imbedded programming in small electronic connectors. This process effectively neutralizes the defense, attack, and navigation capabilities within every system on U.S. warships, submarines, and aircraft. Because Beijing controls two-thirds of the world’s supply of these seemingly harmless connective devices, the Chinese are able to deliberately and strategically infiltrate the U.S. military and industrial base and target four of the military’s primary weapons systems programs…
Got your imagination? The invitation goes onto say that the purpose of this scenario is to expose flaws and weaknesses within the current U.S. national security apparatus but I think we can safely say that this is not solely a US problem… our global connectivity presents all of us with issues of system vulnerability (highlighted by the damage to five undersea cables recently).
by David Steven | Apr 17, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Global system, Influence and networks
Today, I gave the closing address at the RUSI conference, Protecting the Critical Infrastructure, in a session introduced by RUSI’s head of risk and resilience, Anthony McGee. From the introduction to the conference by RUSI’s head, Professor Michael Clarke:
Protecting the Critical National Infrastructure and ensuring the continuation of political, social and economic activity is vital to the UK. As a modern ‘just-in-time’ society is becoming increasingly dependent on goods and services distributed through critical infrastructure, so the potential consequences of disruption to that infrastructure become more serious.
However, the increasing importance of well protected, resilient infrastructure is matched by the growing complexities and interdependencies of a CNI which is spread across sectors and nation states. Relationships between stakeholders are somewhat disjointed, the ownership of risk is unclear and yet the consequences of failure are potentially catastrophic.
Most of the speakers got stuck into the nitty gritty of how infrastructure fails and why – with last summer’s catastrophic floods as exhibit A. My job, however, was to take a somewhat broader view of resilience at a time when the old ‘command and control’ paradigm is failing…
The talk draws heavily (of course) on my collaboration with Alex Evans, but also on work with the economist, David Bloom. Also there’s quite a overlap with these GD posts. Full text after the jump (or here as a pdf).
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by David Steven | Apr 16, 2008 | Articles and Publications, Speeches
Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).
Download Speech
by Alex Evans | Apr 13, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security
A propos of David’s post, here’s what’s scaring me witless this weekend:
The Ug99 strain of the killer wheat fungus (stem rust), which recently infected wheat farms in western Iran, is a serious threat to global food security, agricultural scientists have warned. They have said the fungus may affect additional wheat-producing countries.
Mahmoud Solh, director-general of the International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), was quoted in a 20 March ICARDA press release as saying that he and his fellow scientists were convinced that Ug99 would quickly spread beyond Iran and that, with the long distance travel of rust spores, Ug99 would soon affect farms in the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and East Asia.
Richard Brettell, director of the Biodiversity and Integrated Gene Management Programme at ICARDA, told IRIN on 26 March that halting the spread of the stem rust spores is difficult since they are dispersed by the wind. “The fungus can to some extent be controlled by the application of fungicides [as a spray]; however, these need to be applied at an early stage of infection before the disease takes hold,” he said.
Brettell said the most effective way of controlling the disease is to grow resistant varieties. But he warned: “The problem is that almost all the wheat varieties grown in West and South Asia are known to be susceptible to Ug99. It will take time and coordination to replace them with resistant varieties.”
