by Richard Gowan | Feb 23, 2009 | Africa, Conflict and security, Economics and development
At last, some good news from the Congo:
Negotiators for the Congolese government and a rebel group in the country’s east have reached a preliminary agreement, after talks in the eastern town of Goma. Neither side has released details of the discussion, which would only set the stage for future peace negotiations. Negotiations between the National Congress for the Defense of the People, an ethnic Tutsi rebel group operating in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Congolese government resumed last Wednesday. Following Sunday’s discussions, spokesmen for both sides indicated they had reached a preliminary agreement.
But such limited progress is rather dwarfed by this:
Western donors will begin releasing over $200m (€156m, £139m) of emergency loans to the Democratic Republic of Congo in the next three weeks to prevent the government seizing up as it runs out of dollars, according to an International Monetary Fund official. The funds are set to be released in spite of donor opposition to parts of a $9bn minerals-for-infrastructure deal that Congo has signed with China, which is holding up poverty reduction programmes financed by traditional western donors.
Congo has been hit harder and faster by the global financial crisis than other African countries owing to its heavy dependence on mining and oil, as well as the confluence of last year’s falls in commodity prices with a costly conflict in its eastern provinces.
The events have created a fiscal emergency as government revenues from tax and state joint ventures shrink, causing foreign currency reserves to plummet to just $32m by February 13 from an average of around $250m before the crisis last year, according to the central bank. In the real economy confidence has been shattered: the Congolese franc has weakened sharply against the dollar, inflation is rising, millions of people are being pushed deeper into poverty, and fears of social unrest are rising.
Brian Ames, the IMF’s country director for Congo, told the Financial Times he expected donors to begin dispersing funds at the end of this month or in early March so the government could pay for public sector imports and service its external debt. He said the IMF board would meet next month to consider a loan of up to $200m under the rapid access component of a facility designed to help countries manage the impact of “sudden and significant exogenous shocks”.
Late last year the IMF downgraded its 2009 economic growth forecast for Congo to 4.5 per cent from 11 per cent prior to the global financial crisis. The World Bank is considering providing a further $100m. An EU official said the European Union was considering a loan of €50m ($64m, £44m). “The sense of urgency is increasing by the minute,” said one western diplomat in Kinshasa.
Last year, I called the victims of the Congo crisis “victims of the first war of the financial crisis”. How many more (wars and victims) are to come?
by Richard Gowan | Feb 23, 2009 | Cooperation and coherence, Economics and development, Global system
From the Financial Times:
One of Germany’s most influential engineers has made an urgent plea to bring leading global industrialists, scientists and politicians together in an attempt to rapidly stabilise the financial system, highlighting the growing fear of tightening credit hitting supply chains. Franz Fehrenbach, chief executive of Bosch, the world’s largest car parts supplier, called for the creation of a global interdisciplinary think-tank to find ways to tackle the financial crisis. The head of Germany’s biggest privately owned engineering group warned that the risks of further bank crashes and a meltdown of credit supply to the broader economy remained unabated and urgent action was needed to prevent that.
“We have to bring the best people in the world together to find a sophisticated and interdisciplinary solution for the stabilisation of the world’s financial markets. The approach has to be enforceable on a global basis as too many plans have been torn apart by national governments,” Mr Fehrenbach told the Financial Times.
Wait a minute: did I just see the word enforceable applied to a think-tank’s out-put? This must be every wonk’s dream: an institution producing policy recommendations with the power of law. This concept needs to be extended: perhaps my wittering on the failure of peace operations should be backed up a crack brigade of Indian blue helmets? Or Alex’s musings on the food crisis reinforced by a guaranteed supply of free shrimp to anyone who puts them into practice?
by David Steven | Feb 23, 2009 | What we're watching
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqkMfToY9Pk[/youtube]
by Daniel Korski | Feb 21, 2009 | Conflict and security
In the Times today there is a story about one of the greatest British counter-insurgents, Emma Sky. Military commanders describe the Arabic-speaking, British Council official as a modern-day Gertrude Stein.
Now working for General Ray Odierno, the diminutive, Left-wing Sky initially got to know the 6 foot 5 inches warrior when they both worked in Tikrit immediately after the 2003 invasion. In between her stins in Iraq, she served as British General David Richard’s adviser in Kabul. Since about 2007 –- when Sky took her current post as a key aide to the MNF-I commander — no British official, including successive British ambassadors in Baghdad, has been as influential on US counter-insurgency policy or, indeed, on US Iraq policy.
Last year, Sky published an article for RUSI called Moving Beyond Counter-Insurgency Doctrine, a must-read for counter-insurgency devotees and anyone who wants to understand US Iraq policy medio-2007.
Whenever she finishes her assignment in Iraq, the British government would do well to immediately (create and) offer a post as the Defence Secretary’s Special Adviser for Counter-Insurgency, from where she will be able to bring many of the lessons from US operations in Iraq into the British military and bureaucracy — something that is sorely needed.
by Alex Evans | Feb 21, 2009 | Cooperation and coherence
One thing all serious experts on disasters and resilience agree on is the need to keep your morale up while everything you thought you could rely on is crumbling around you.
Brian Clegg’s Global Warming Survival Kit , for instance, has checklists to see if your outlook is flagging under the pressure. “Everything seems pointless” – check! “Always feeling sad, or simply blank” – check! “Feeling worthless and without value” – check!
Fortunately, help is at hand. The final chapter of his book offers a range of techniques for keeping chirpy: from ‘relaxation by breathing’ (Amanda Ripley‘s keen on that one too), making music, or – best of all – simply playing games. As Brian so rightly observes,
A stash of games is very useful if you have to entertain yourselves, and they will make good bartering objects too.
Well, here at Global Dashboard we know good advice when we see it – and of course it also goes without saying that we’re dedicated to helping our readers through these turbulent times as well. So we’re proud to unveil our own special game: Network Disruption Bingo.
During an exhaustive mapping process undertaken over a period of nearly 45 minutes, we’ve identified the key networks we all depend on but rarely stop to consider. Then (here’s the science part – concentrate), we’ve allocated points to each one depending on how bad it would be if it crashed, and put them on a special scorecard.
Print it out, and keep it safe for the dark nights ahead. You never know, you may be able to barter it for something useful.
