by Mark Weston | Nov 22, 2007 | Middle East and North Africa
OK it’s Haaretz, a left-wing rag, but hey. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo?an, they argue, is the pick of today’s rum bunch of global leaders. Without him, “belligerent Iran, medieval Saudi Arabia or shaky Pakistan (caught in the calipers of sinister madrasas and a state of emergency) would be setting the tone.” Haaretz even parades Tayyip’s charms before a sceptical European Union, warning:
“You have 70 million Turks in your court, Europe. Instead of embracing Turkey, you are sending it scurrying hither and yon. Instead of proving that this is not a matter of ego, prejudice and xenophobia, you are humiliating the very sane alternative that Turkey represents.
“As though the Turkish democracy is the only one that’s not perfect, the only one whose laws are flawed and in need of amendment – the only one violating civil and human rights.”
The latter point echoes a letter I wrote to the FT in September bemoaning the double standards surrounding Turkey’s EU accession, but Tayyip might be useful for Israel as well as Europe. As a friend of the country but also a respected and devout Muslim, could he be just the man to act as honest broker with the Palestinians?
by David Steven | Nov 7, 2007 | Global system, Influence and networks, South Asia
A message from Asma Jahangir – a heroic defender of human rights in Pakistan.
The situation in the country is uncertain. There is a strong crackdown on the press and lawyers. Majority of the judges of the Supreme Court and four High Courts have not taken oath. The Chief Justice is under house arrest (unofficially) . The President of the Supreme Court Bar (Aitzaz Ahsan) and 2 former presidents, Mr. Muneer Malik and Tariq Mahmood have been imprisoned for one month under the Preventive Detention laws. The President of the Lahore High Court Mr. Ahsan Bhoon and former bar leader Mr. Ali Ahmed Kurd have also been arrested. The police is looking or 6 other lawyers, including President of Peshawar and Karachi bar. The President of Lahore bar is also in hiding. There are other scores political leaders who have also been arrested.
Yesterday I was house arrested for 90 days. I am sending my detention order.
Ironically the President (who has lost his marbles) said that he had to clamp down on the press and the judiciary to curb terrorism. Those he has arrested are progressive, secular minded people while the terrorists are offered negotiations and ceasefires. Lawyers and civil society will challenge the government and the scene is likely to get uglier. We want friends of Pakistan to urge the US administration to stop all support of the instable dictator, as his lust for power is bringing the country close to a worse form of civil strife. It is not time for the international community to insist on preventive measures, otherwise cleaning up the mess may take decades. There are already several hundred IDPs and the space for civil society has hopelessly shrunk.
We believe that Musharaf has to be taken out of the equation and a government of national reconciliation put in place. It must be backed by the military. Short of this here are no realistic solutions, although there are no guarantees that this may work.
The full pdf of Emergency Times can be downloaded here. It’s the first issue of a publication that aims to organise resistance to Pakistan’s state of emergency. Please pass on… and visit the blog too.
by David Steven | Nov 6, 2007 | South Asia
In Slate, Lee Smith paints the Pakistani army as the last bulwark against the Islamic hordes:
The Pakistani military, as is the case with most armed forces in the Muslim world, is the citadel of the country’s modernity, its most significant secular institution and protector not only of the modern nation state but the idea of the nation state itself. Still, that is a mighty thin green line standing between 1,300 years of Islamic military principles, many thousands of years more of tribal and ethnic rivalries, and a nuclear arsenal.
Condi Rice, meanwhile, is guilty of emasculating President Musharraf, just when she should be supporting his brave fight against terror:
Rice is compromising Musharraf’s only sources of political legitimacy—U.S. support and his status as a military man. Maybe she believes that the general should surrender his sidearm as well.
“If the secretary of state is concerned that Pakistan is falling behind in its commitment to democracy,” Smith lectures, “she should recall that there is no democracy without the institutions of a nation state, and if Musharraf falls, there is no telling what would happen next.”
But isn’t that the problem? That Musharraf has chosen to attack precisely those ‘institutions of a nation state’ – the media and the courts – that have most legitimacy? And that by ‘standing by Musharraf’, the US has been complicit in destroying whatever popularity he may once have had?
Update: Gideon Rachman makes a similar point:
The history of the cold war demonstrates that the best way to entrench anti-Americanism for generations is for the US to support an unpopular dictatorship. And the polls show that Gen Musharraf – who once commanded quite a lot of support – is increasingly unpopular within Pakistan. His approval ratings are now in the low 20s – and that was before the declaration of a state of emergency.
by David Steven | Nov 4, 2007 | South Asia
Reacting to the crisis in Pakistan, Ali Eteraz, over at the Guardian, argues that only opportunistic opposition politicians, a handful of lawyers, and decadent democracy-addled Westerners are likely to get too upset by events of the past few days.
Ordinary people yearn for stability, he says, and are enjoying the economic good times Musharraf has inspired. Even ‘democracy-promoting analysts’ (spit) are forced to admire the President’s economic management, he argues.
Victor Davis Hansen, writing from the other side of the Atlantic (and across a rather big political divide), is a reluctant supporter of democracy (‘ultimately our only choice’), but an ardent critic of Pakistan and its people:
It would be hard to think of a bigger mess than Pakistan: nuclear; half the population radically Islamic; vast sanctuaries for the architects of 9/11; a virulent anti-Americanism in which aid and military credits are demanded but never appreciated; dictatorship at odds with America’s professed support for Middle-East constitutional government.
But are these beliefs backed up the facts?
According to the best available polling – conducted every six three months by the International Republican Institute – no. According to the latest poll (pdf), conducted in September, when the situation in the country was deteriorating, but not yet critical:
Pakistanis were deeply concerned by the direction in which their country was heading, with 73% believing things were getting worse. What is striking is how rapidly pessimism had grown. Only 44% had believed things were going downhill a year ago; 59% just three months back.
Contrary to Davis Hansen’s belief, the population seemed highly agitated by rising extremism. 74% agreed that it was a serious problem for the country, only 21% disagree. 57%, meanwhile, believed that Taliban and Al Qaida operations in Waziristan were a serious challenge.
However, economic concerns were much more pressing. Asked about the key issues they’d vote for in an election: inflation came top (37%), followed by unemployment (20%); poverty (11%); and law and order (10%).
But contra Eteraz, Pakistanis were hurting economically. 56% believed they were worse off financially than a year before (up from 34% three months previously).
Little surprise then that Musharraf’s approval rating, which was above 60% in 2006, had tanked to 21% (this would be bad even for George Bush).
In September, most people thought their President should go, with 70% sure he should resign and another 8% thinking that maybe he should. Only 23% wanted him re-elected President even if he had ‘doffed’ his uniform. No matter – the President bullied his way back into power, keeping the uniform on.
A state of emergency, the poll suggests, will have gone down like a lead balloon. In September, only 8% thought declaring an emergency would be a good idea, while 62% wanted the army completely out of politics.
In justifying suspending the constitution, Musharraf went out of his way to attack the media (“contributed to this downslide, this negative thinking, this negative projection”) and the courts (“the judiciary has interfered”).
The media and the courts are, of course, Pakistan’s most popular institutions, with an 80% and 77% approval rating respectively.
So, in a country whose population is demoralized and suffering economically, we have a spectacularly unpopular President taking on the country’s two most trusted institutions.
So where will Musharraf get his support? From the army? Maybe, but even it is losing its lustre (approval down to 70% from 82% in three months).
Or parliament? He’s left the National Assembly in place (a ‘shrewd move’ Eteraz reckons, which will keep people off the street), but it has an approval rating of only 42%. And let’s hope he doesn’t need the police. They are the most hated of all at 13%.
“If I have your companionship,” he told the Pakistani people yesterday in the Urdu portion of yesterday’s televised address. “I have no doubt, God Willing, Pakistan will be back to the forefront and this derailed train will be, God Willing, back on track.”
Perhaps Musharraf will get away with this desperate attempt to cling to power. But companionship with the people? That, I think, is one eventuality we can rule out.
by David Steven | Nov 3, 2007 | North America, South Asia
According to the BBC, the long-awaited state of emergency in Pakistan has finally arrived:
Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf has declared emergency rule and suspended the country’s constitution.
Troops have been deployed inside state-run TV and radio stations, while independent channels have gone off air.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who condemned the moves, has reportedly been sacked and is being confined to the Supreme Court with 10 other judges.
It comes as the court was due to rule on the legality of Gen Musharraf’s re-election victory in October.
Alex’s colleague at New York University, Barney Rubin is live-blogging the coup:
So far it looks like the Army has kept the politicians out of Islamabad by arranging for PIA to go on strike on Friday, when they are all in their constituencies. So far it is calm. I’ll report as I can.
Key question is how the US administration will react. If you listen to John Bolton, you get the impression that at least some of his old colleagues will be quite relieved:
Musharraf is rightly faulted for many things, especially inadequately purging the army of Islamic militants and a listless pursuit of al Qaeda, but does anyone seriously argue that politicians will better harness Pakistan’s military?
With a nuclear arsenal up for grabs, the stakes in Pakistan are high. Bolstered by the Bush administration’s evident support, the politicians continue to try to force Musharraf out, which likely will be hailed as a triumph of democracy.
That may be, but I am far from certain that elected civilians running Islamabad will make us safer from a loss of command-and-control over those nuclear weapons, or from the danger that they will come into terrorist hands. This is a risky way to experiment with democratic theory.
Update: Benazir is in Dubai. Will she head back to Pakistan? No, says Zubeir Bashir, a spokesman for her party:
She can’t go back to Pakistan now due to the state of emergency. If she goes back they would arrest her.
Yes, says her husband:
“(She’s flying back) tonight, yes of course,” Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari told Reuters by telephone from Dubai, saying she was already on the plane.
Update II: Text of the proclamation of emergency is here. Radicals and judges get equal blame:
WHEREAS there is visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings, IED explosions, rocket firing and bomb explosions and the banding together of some militant groups have taken such activities to an unprecedented level of violent intensity posing a grave threat to the life and property of the citizens of Pakistan;
WHEREAS there has also been a spate of attacks on State infrastructure and on law enforcement agencies;
WHEREAS some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism thereby weakening the Government and the nation’s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace…
