by David Steven | Jul 19, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system, South Asia
There have been lots of suicide bombings in Pakistan lately, corruption is rife, and the education system is in a terrible state. But only 2% of Pakistanis believe that each of these problems is the most important issue facing Pakistan.
So what is? Inflation, of course, thought by over 70% to be the country’s biggest challenge. Running at 21% (and with food prices up by almost a third), it’s imposing a heavy burden on the middle class, a devastating one on the poor. Unemployment, picked by 13%, is the only other issue to get into double figures.
This from IRI’s quarterly survey of public opinion, which now has data stretching back to 2006 and which published new results this week.
In just a few years, Pakistan has seen a complete collapse in confidence about the future. 86% of people now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, slightly more than before February’s election. 72% are worse off than they were a year ago. 1% feel richer.
Policymakers badly need to cut through the political froth and focus on these fundamental drivers of social unrest. I thought people were bleak when I was here a few months ago, but the mood has darkened once again.
If anyone out there has any doubts about the depth of Pakistan’s problems, they should spend some time with IRI’s figures. Read the whole thing here.
by David Steven | Jul 17, 2008 | Conflict and security, South Asia
Lyari is Karachi’s most lawless district – with two warring gangs battling for territory. Outsiders never visit and residents struggle to survive. According to a report in Pakistan’s excellent Herald magazine (text not online, unfortunately):
The six-kilometre-long Tannery Road, popularly known as Layari’s LoC [line of control], now serves as the de factor border demarcating Dakait and Zikri held areas – entry and exit in either is risky business. In the midst of this mayhem, the residents of Lyari continue to suffer manifold: many have been forced to change their residencies, their movements restricted while education has taken a back seat as young people have [great euphemism coming up…] misplaced priorities.
Many have fled their homes, which are then looted by the rival gangs. “Those who could not relocate have scrambled to shore up their defences, boarding windows with iron sheets to shield their families from stray bullets.” Strangers are quickly picked up by patrolling gangs, and can be tortured to death.
The only solution, of course, is to seek protection from one of the gangs. A bank worker’s house was set on fire by one of the Zikri gang members:
After that I invited Dakait to take over the area and gave them complete information about where Zikri and his men were positioned. A day prior to the launch of the police operation, Dakait’s men set up up a post on the roof of my house at midnight. I have become a member of the Dakait gang since and am doing two jobs: one at the office, the other for Dakait.
Rehman Dakait’s gang is the more successful, now controlling 75% of the territory. Predictably enough, its role is now beginning to shift, as it starts to substitute for government in the areas it now controls:
Of late, the image of the dreaded, almost mythical figure of Dakait is being recast by his henchmen. Several complaint centres have been set up in Dakait-held areas which act swiftly on being informed of a robbery or mugging in the locality.
Armed men on new CG-125 motorbikes wearing a specific camoflauge P-Cap, the uniform of Dakait’s force, promptly reach the spot after being informed of a street crime, say Lyari’s residents.
A crackdown was launched in May, but failed. Now another has been announced:
A senior officer at the meeting told The News that, besides the joint deployment of police and Rangers personnel in the inner corridor of Lyari, 28 exit and entry points have been identified for establishing pickets. About 12 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) have been arranged for the police and Rangers patrolling. The entire plan would be finalised before the second week of July, he said.
The meeting was further informed that cameras with powerful zoom capabilities would also be installed at various selected and identified locations, while snap-checking would be conducted at a number of points in the locality. The Sindh home minister was also briefed about practical problems with respect to manpower and logistics support.
You reckon that’s going to work? No, I didn’t think you did…
by Daniel Korski | Jul 16, 2008 | Conflict and security
Bush, Obama and McCain have in the last few days all talked about Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In my view all three shirk the need for 1) a new political settlement in Afghanistan, including through negotiations with “pragmatic” Taliban elements, 2) a new trans-Atlantic push on Pakistan and the region (and not only a CT-focused approach), and 3) the need to invest in the Afghan National Police.
Here is what they have said:
(more…)
by David Steven | Jul 15, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, South Asia
I’m back in Pakistan where the economic picture continues to worsen, as inflation hits 21.53%.
Delve into the detail and you can see the impact of ordinary people. Food prices have risen 32% over the past year, fuel by 11% (despite government subsidies), transport by 25% and health care by 14%. Another petrol and diesel price rise is on the cards.
The new government, meanwhile, is borrowing heavily to maintain subsidies and invest in public services. In the short term, this may dampen down unrest, but it adds to inflationary pressures, and probably merely delays the inevitable economic crunch.
A further problem is the failure of food supply to expand in response to rising prices. According to Mahmood Hasan Khan, food productivity has been stagnant for a decade, with water one of many serious constraints.
Writing in the Daily Times, Rasul Bakhsh Rais sums up the prevailing mood:
The hope that the present elected leadership of the dominant party can address the many challenges facing the country is fast dissipating. There are no alternatives other than chaos, confrontation and even more chaos.
Things are not looking good…
by Alex Evans | Jul 11, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system, Influence and networks
This week, the Foreign Office published a new collection of essays and case studies on public diplomacy edited by Europe Minister Jim Murphy. The FT had an article on it yesterday, including an interview with Jim:
“The thesis we are putting forward is that the nature of power has changed,” he said … “We therefore need to move from a one-dimensional diplomacy to something more effective, which listens to overseas publics and speaks to them.”
Among the key points that Jim makes in the book (as set out in his interview):
– “Foreign ministries must stop seeing public diplomacy as a form of public relations, shouting out core messages and top lines.”
– Governments must understand that “an old-fashioned nation-branding approach to public diplomacy doesn’t change what foreigners think of your country … It matters to us, for example, that in a madrassa in Pakistan people get an informed assessment about the world. But when people in that madrassa get that information, do they need to know it is from Her Majesty’s government? Often it is far more effective, frankly, if they don’t.”
– Foreign ministries need to engage with outside groups at all stages in the policy cycle, from research and analysis to policy implementation. “The era of generating policies in a foreign office silo has gone.” This means, he says, that UK embassies abroad will now use outside consultants in the countries where they are posted to help convey their message to the local public.
And, the article reports, a top line UK target on public diplomacy is shifting the views of foreign publics on climate change – and getting those publics to shift the views of their governments. To that end, the FCO has prepared a target list of 20 countries where the views of publics are especially critical to determining the shape of future global climate commitments. According to Murphy,
“In one country, the key constituency to engage with might be NGOs; in another, it might be the leading scientists; in another it could be the main journalists.”
David and I wrote one of the chapters for the book, entitled Towards a theory of influence for 21st century foreign policy: public diplomacy in a globalised world, and David’s been out in Washington this week to speak at the book’s US launch. I’ll also be speaking at the UK launch at the Foreign Office on 21 July.
