by Charlie Edwards | Aug 3, 2008 | UK
I can’t be the only one scratching my head at the Conservative Party’s summer holiday reading list. It’s week 2 of silly season, I grant you, and journalists will take pretty much anything on offer, but this just smacks of column filling (that said perhaps some of the larger tomes will act as wind breakers and/or sun shades on the beach).
According to the Sunday Times the reading list was chosen by Keith Simpson, a shadow foreign affairs spokesman and a former lecturer at Cranfield and Sandhurst. This is clearly reflected in his choice of reading material as 24 of the 38 books are on military history, geography, and terrorism. Nudge, the book currently feted by all three political parties looks like a definite afterthought.
What I find so puzzling is the choice of books on offer. I really can’t believe Cameron will be leafing through Empires of the Sea or Five Days in London on his hols.
There are no decent books on China (the more recent by Will Hutton, Charles Grant and Mark Leonard). What about Clay Shirky’s Here Comes Everybody; Diplomacy by Henry Kissenger, or Thomas Rick’s Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2003 to 2005? The list of good books is endless – this list is meaningless.
MPs have approximately 11 weeks off, so here’s how they might spend their summer holiday (according to Keith Simpson):
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by Richard Gowan | Aug 1, 2008 | Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, South Asia
My recent extended growl about the parlous state of peacekeeping has been cited as evidence in a fascinating online debate among Indian security analysts on whether their army should stay committed to UN operations. This debate is significant because (i) India is consistently among the top three contributors to UN forces, along with Pakistan and Bangladesh; (ii) it is even more important in terms of hard-to-find assets like helicopters; (iii) it is suffering a run of negative publicity about how badly some of its troops behave (the fact that a lot of this snark comes from the BBC irks some in the debate, who detect post-colonial prurience).
With India’s economy growing fast, the payments it receives from the UN in return for its troops are increasingly irrelevant. So might there come a moment when India decides that blue helmet deployments no longer befit its status and interests as a great power? Yes, and the sooner the better, according to two hawkish strategists in the Indian Express in early July. Edited highlights:
More Indian troops have died in the line of their UN duties than from any other country. According to the Indian Embassy in the US, “India has risked the lives of its soldiers in peacekeeping efforts of the United Nations, not for any strategic gain, but in the service of an ideal. India’s ideal was, and remains, strengthening the world body, and international peace and security.” That the Indian government should take pride in risking the lives of Indian soldiers in the “service of an ideal” is appalling. It now serves little more than bureaucratic interests.
In order to give the issue the attention it demands, India should immediately suspend all further UN deployments. This should be followed by a graduated withdrawal of all Indian troops operating under the UN flag. There might be a case for a small, token presence, in carefully chosen theatres. It is time for India to stop seeing foreign troop deployments as “risking lives in the service of an ideal.” Rather, they should be seen as being tightly coupled with vital foreign policy objectives, like for instance, securing India’s construction crews in Afghanistan. As India’s economic interests expand globally, it is likely that the need for such deployments will increase.
You can follow the debate sparked by these comments over at Pragmatic Euphony, a blog devoted to India’s national interest. Fears of new violence ahead in the eastern Congo suggest that Indian peacekeepers may be in the headlines again this summer, as this is one of the theatres in which they are squarely on the frontline. A rapid drawdown of Indian forces isn’t imminent – New Delhi has good reasons to look responsible after (i) it took flak for helping kill off Doha (whatever the merits!) and (ii) the IAEA signed off on the US-India nuclear deal this week.
But these online stirrings may be the start of something bigger. India could well lose faith in the relevance of peacekeeping – recent violence in Kashmir and reports that Pakistan was implicated in July’s attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul are reminders that it has urgent problems on its doorstep to tend to. New Delhi is also deeply skeptical about all the current talk about the Responsibility to Protect (as it demonstrated during the Burmese cyclone crisis) and is liable to demand an ever-greater say in UN strategy-making if it is to stay involved. That raises the tricky question of when if ever India will get a permanent Security Council seat…
If India cut back on its peacekeepers it would be incredibly difficult to sustain big peace operations in places like the Congo. This is often obscured by (i) a lazy assumption that the South Asians will be peacekeepers forever out of habit; (ii) a focus on the views of African troop suppliers, especially in Darfur; and (iii) possibly excessive excitement about the prospect of other countries getting involved, like China. China’s peacekeeping commitments are still less than a quarter of India’s.
I’ve got yet another academic analysis of the dynamics of UN ops out, in a book on “Strategies for Peace” (don’t be put off by the lime-green cover). I wrote it ages ago, but it highlights the South Asian contribution and how UN missions rely on a global compact between three categories of state: “those in which large-scale peace operations are deployed (mainly in Africa); those which supply the bulk of peacekeeping forces (most notably in South Asia and Africa); and those that provide most of the funding for peace operations (the United States, EU members and Japan).” Lose the Indians, and that compact starts to unravel.
Unfortunately (or thankfully, depending on your perspective) this new article isn’t online. But it concludes along the lines of a shorter think-piece I published last year about developing a new strategic consensus that all those involved in UN ops can buy into if they are to keep on keeping on… a consensus, I infer from the Indian online debate, that should be couched in interests not ideals.
UPDATE: check out Pragmatic Euphony’s interesting riposte to this post here.
by Daniel Korski | Jul 27, 2008 | East Asia and Pacific, North America, South Asia
Bill Emmott, the former editor of The Economist, has a great – if glibly-titled – piece in The Times today, articulating what I have thought for a while (OK – what I should have thought): that while Fareed Zakaria talks about a post-American order where U.S influence is giving way to the power of the “Rest” (China, India etc.) both Barack Obama and John McCain seem to live in a decidedly Euro-centric world.
Look at Senator Obama’s stops on his recent trip – Europe, the Middle East and, of course, Afghanistan. The itinerary is hardly any different from what Bill Clinton’s would have done in 1992 – that is, go to Europe, the Middle East and to where U.S forces are deployed. But, as Emmot says, the future of the U.S may be determined in Asia, not Europe or even the Middle East:
Three issues in Asia will be, or should be, high on the new president’s briefings when he enters office in January. In order of immediacy they are inflation, climate change and the balance-of-power politics.
So what do Obama and McCain say about a rising China, a resurgent Russia, rivalry between India and Pakistan Asian countries? Very little. Or, at least very little compared to what they say about other issues.
At the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Obama said:
In Asia, the emergence of an economically vibrant, more politically active China offers new opportunities for prosperity and cooperation, but also poses new challenges.
To deal with these, Obama will “forge a more effective regional framework in Asia that will promote stability, prosperity and help us confront common transnational threats such as tracking down terrorists and responding to global health problems like avian flu.”
Nothing wrong with this, but a profound policy statement it is not. Nor does it deal with many of the gremlins in the U.S-China relationship like the trade balance.
McCain has been more forward on how he would deal with China and Russia. He has meet with the Dalai Lama and urged China to address human rights concerns and free Tibetan prisoners.
His tough-guy stance is even tougher on Russia. The U.S, says McCain, should respond harshly to Russia’s anti-democratic actions, and warns of the “dangers posed by a revanchist Russia”. On the campaign trail, McCain jokes that when he looks in Vladimir Putin’s eyes, he sees three letters: KGB.
But while the Arizona senator’s stance is tough and clear, he can hardly have thought through the implications of such a stance against Moscow, given the price of oil, the views of America’s allies etc.
Bottom-line is that while both candidate have talked about U.S relations with the “Rest”, both lag behind today’s leading foreign policy intellectuals in developing a serious set of U.S. policies towards the new powers and seem more comfortable in a Euro-centric mindset. That may be good for Europe in the short-term, but bad in the long-term. For the way in which the U.S and Europe relate to these new powers will determine how the world looks in the next 10 years.
by Alex Evans | Jul 21, 2008 | Global system, Influence and networks, Middle East and North Africa, North America
As David put it a while back: just what we need, another moron.
Asked by ABC’s Diane Sawyer Monday morning whether the “the situation in Afghanistan in precarious and urgent,” McCain responded:
“I think it’s serious. . . . It’s a serious situation, but there’s a lot of things we need to do. We have a lot of work to do and I’m afraid it’s a very hard struggle, particularly given the situation on the Iraq/Pakistan border,” said McCain, R-Ariz., said on “Good Morning America.”
by Charlie Edwards | Jul 21, 2008 | Conflict and security
The most recent suicide bombing in the US was carried out by:
a) a foreign Muslim terrorist
b) a native non-Muslim terrorist
c) a foreign non- Muslim terrorist
d) a native Muslim terrorist
Answer after the jump
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