by Alex Evans | Jan 22, 2008 | Conflict and security, Economics and development, Middle East and North Africa, South Asia
Dan Korski at ECFR has a new report out today entitled Afghanistan: Europe’s forgotten war (summary; press release; full report). The EU doesn’t come out of it very well: “EU countries have treated the common effort in Afghanistan like a pot-luck dinner where every guest is free to bring his own dish”, says Dan. Key points from the report:
Need for a ‘grand bargain’ – As part of a ‘grand bargain’, the EU should deploy more troops in Afghanistan, relax restrictions on their troops – the so-called ‘caveats’ – and reverse the decline in development aid. In exchange, the US should accept a shift from a strategy based on combat operations to one focused on overall political impact, and the protection of ordinary civilians across the country. It should also abandon its failed counter-narcotics strategy.
Political inclusion – The international coalition should include mid-ranking, moderate insurgents in the political process, and help President Hamid Karzai to eventually reach a political settlement with his opponents. Negotiations with the Taliban are now unavoidable and the current status quo untenable.
EU underperformance – So far, the majority of EU governments have only made a symbolic contribution to the military effort – with Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland and Portugal at the bottom of the list. (As an example, Austria has contributed a mere 3 soldiers, Ireland only 7, while Luxembourg 9. This stands in contrast to the UK’s 7000 troops, Germany’s 3000 and The Netherlands’ 1500.)
New counter-narcotics strategy – The international coalition should design a new approach to counter-narcotics and abandon all earlier plans for aerial spraying, or schemes for buying up opium crops. Instead, they should make clear that traffickers and their protectors, not farmers, are the problem. The emphasis should be placed on arresting and prosecuting drug lords and their backers in government.
Local delivery – The international community should prioritise local governance and rule-of-law reforms. Assistance efforts need to be refocused around delivering clear benefits on the ground, through strengthening provincial administrations, and ensuring that the Afghan police contribute to, rather than undermine, the safety of civilians.
UN super envoy – The ‘grand bargain’ agenda would require leadership that cuts across military, political and development lines, as well as institutional boundaries. The new UN envoy should be a double-hatted leader, bearing responsibility for the leadership of both the UN and NATO. This super envoy should be endorsed by the European Union, and the set-up should be cemented through a new UN Security Council resolution.
Given Paddy Ashdown’s appointment last week as UN Envoy to Afghanistan, it’s doubtless worth reading the report in some detail: Dan was Ashdown’s head of political / military affairs in Bosnia.
Also: the debate between UK Ambassador to Afghanistan Sherard Cowper-Coles and author Rory Stewart in the current edition of Prospect is well worth a look. (Sadly it’s not available online unless you’re a subscriber, or willing to cough up for the article.) I assumed when I began reading it that it would all be rather consensual as Prospect debates go. Uh-uh…
by Alex Evans | Jan 19, 2008 | Conflict and security, UK
So now we’re in a breakout group on how democracies should fight terrorism. Quite a panel they’ve assembled: Shami Chakrabarti from Liberty, David Omand who used to be Security and Intelligence Co-ordinator at the Cabinet Office, author of The Islamist Ed Hussein, Sadiq Khan MP and Home Office minister Tony McNulty.
And there’s a fight! Shami Chakrabarti and Ed Hussein, whom we all assumed would make nice, are kicking the crap out of each other! Ed Hussein throws the first punch by saying that he feels Shami is patronising him – and that she’s a “liberal do-gooder”. Shami not happy about this. She starts by taking the moral high ground, talking about respect and open debate. But then she relents – and tells Ed that “it’ll be a long time before I start taking lessons in democracy from someone whose acquaintance with it is so recent”. And as one, we all go “oooOOOooo”…
by Alex Evans | Jan 16, 2008 | Conflict and security
Blimey:
Pope Benedict XVI last night called off a visit to Rome’s main university in the face of hostility from some of its academics and students, who accused him of despising science and defending the Inquisition’s condemnation of Galileo.
The controversy was unparalleled in a country where criticism of the Roman Catholic church is normally muted. The Pope had been due to speak tomorrow during ceremonies marking the start of the academic year at Rome’s largest and oldest university, La Sapienza. But the Vatican said last night it had been “considered opportune to postpone” his visit.
The announcement followed a break-in and sit-in at the rector’s office yesterday by about 50 students and a furious row over a letter signed by more than 60 of La Sapienza’s teachers, asking that the invitation to the Pope be rescinded.
The signatories of the letter said Benedict’s presence would be “incongruous”. They cited a speech he made at La Sapienza in 1990, while he was still a cardinal, in which he quoted the judgment of an Austrian philosopher of science who wrote that the church’s trial of Galileo was “reasonable and fair”.
by David Steven | Jan 9, 2008 | North America
While you’re all focused on the important political issues – Clinton/Obama; McCain/Huckabee/Romney – I have continued to enjoy the Ron Paul insurgency, which now appears to be entering its final phase.
Paul, you will remember, built a fanatic online following, raised oodles of money (over $6m in just one day), but failed to build much real world support (8% in New Hampshire, just behind Rudy Giuliani).
Now the New Republic has really put the boot in with a devastating article on the skeletons in Paul’s (seemingly capacious) closet. Sample extract from an eight-page Paul fund raising letter sent out during the presidency of Bush-the-elder:
I have unmasked the plot for world government, world money, and world central banking. Planned exchange controls to hold you hostage…while the dollar drops down a hole…
I revealed the Red debt bomb set to explode in your bank account…The real, financial reasons Bush invaded Panama. The nightmare of a ‘cashless society’ (watch out for it, if they get away with the New Money)…
I’ve been told not to talk, but these stooges don’t scare me. Threats or not threats, I’ve laid bare the coming race war in our big cities. The federal-homosexual cover-up on AIDS (my training as a physician helps me see through this one.)
The Bohemian Grove – perverted, pagan playground of the powerful Skull & Bones: the demonic fraternity that includes George Bush and leftist Senator John Kerry, Congress’s Mr New Money. The Israeli lobby, which plays Congress like a cheap harmonica. And the Soviet-style ‘smartcard’ the Justice Department has in mind for you.
Paul’s reaction? He didn’t write any of the offending letters or newsletters, but takes “moral responsibility for not paying closer attention to what went out under my name.”
Lew Rockwell, a key Paul supporter, has an even-more amusing take. Paul’s opponents are now ‘scared and desperate’:
I think that what people should take from this is the obvious: this story appeared at this point and time, using this very “hot” theme, because the old media establishment that tries its best to support the Washington DC political establishment is darn near spooked by the power wielded by a bunch of grassroots Moms, Dads, college kids, Grandmas, and blue-collar Joes who have had enough of the current system and its choke hold on their ability to live their lives unencumbered.
Freedom has gained some popularity in the heartland and in the home, thanks to Dr. Paul, and that won’t be tolerated by the controlling bastards in power or the inconsequential media hacks like Kirchick and the New Republic.
Of course, there’s a small grain of truth in what Rockwell says. The ‘controlling bastards’ probably have got what matters to them most. A near-certainty that Paul won’t now run as an independent, siphoning off a small, but potentially critical, protest vote…
by Richard Gowan | Nov 29, 2007 | Conflict and security
Well, the UN may be down in the dumps about Darfur and the EU might be losing its bottle on Chad, but those NATO guys down in Kosovo don’t do fear, even if things are looking edgy.
NATO’s commander in Kosovo brushed aside security threats, saying the 16,000-strong NATO-led force known as KFOR was ready to respond.
“KFOR is everywhere and is ready to face any kind of threat at any time, coming from anywhere,” French Lt. Gen. Xavier Bout de Marnhac told reporters after a brief ceremony at the military base.
I’m assuming that it must have required a good deal of scenario-planning to ascertain that KFOR has indeed reached this state of omnipotent perfection. That, or someone in KFOR HQ has been listening to a bit too much Janet Jackson.
