Bush, Obama and McCain have in the last few days all talked about Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In my view all three shirk the need for 1) a new political settlement in Afghanistan, including through negotiations with “pragmatic” Taliban elements, 2) a new trans-Atlantic push on Pakistan and the region (and not only a CT-focused approach), and 3) the need to invest in the Afghan National Police.
Here is what they have said:
Today’s defence news is a new survey showing that British soldiers – and the British army – are operating at breaking point. In the Army, 59 per cent of those questioned rated the level of morale as “low” or “very low”. In the Royal Navy it was 64 per cent and the Royal Marines 38 per cent. The worst perception of morale was in the RAF, where 72 per cent of those asked thought that morale was low.
Yesterday, I discussed the British army’s operation in Afghanistan with James Fergusson – whose fast-paced book A Million Bullets about British operations in Helmand is a must-read – and he backed up the survey with real-life anecdotes of poor morale among the frontline troops.
But how do the survey results compare to the experience of other allies, for example the U.S military?
Two months ago, findings showed that US troop morale improved in Iraq last year, but soldiers fighting in Afghanistan suffered more depression and lower morale. Eleven percent of U.S soldiers surveyed in Iraq said their unit’s morale was “high” or “very high”, compared with 7 percent the previous year. Individual morale was reported “high” or “very high” among 20.6 percent, compared with 18.3 percent the previous year.
But more than 27 percent of troops on their third or fourth combat tour suffered anxiety, depression, post-combat stress and other problems. That compared with 12 percent among those on their first tour. (Extensive suvreys of the U.S military’s mental health can be found here)
When U.S officers were asked in a recent survey to grade the health of each military service on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning the officers have no concern about the health of the service and 10 meaning they are extremely concerned, the officers reported an average score of 7.9 for the Army and 7.0 for the Marine Corps. In a fascinating contrast to the RAF, the health of the Air Force fared the best, with a score of 5.7.
On the question of the morale of the U.S. military today, U.S officers responded:
17% Very high
47% Somewhat high
22% Somewhat low
4% Very low
10% Don’t know
Conclusion: winning wars – like the U.S Army is in Iraq today – makes a difference on how troops feel. But – no surprise here either – long tours, poor equipment, continued stress and a seemingly endless war effort hurt morale.
In 1941, U.S. Army’s morale chief, James A. Ulio explained what morale was:
I’ll tell you what morale is. It is when a soldier thinks his army is the best in the world, his regiment the best in the army, his company the best in the regiment, his squad the best in the company, and that he himself is the best damn soldier-man in the outfit.
Not a bad definition, and something the MoD should hard about how best to achieve.
A once-in-a-generation power shift is taking place in the Middle East with the rise of Iran. As the U.S is temporarily distracted in the run-up to the November elections, many in the Gulf fear that Iran will parlay its recent successes, for example by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shia parties in Iraq, into an even stronger position. Such a shift will have direct consequences for the region and for Europe’s security and well-being.
At present, Iran is unlikely to be mollified – having rejected even generous offers of EU assistance – and a stronger relationship between the EU and the Gulf is now needed to build a bulwark against Iran’s influence, until a new U.S administration decides whether to engage or not in talks with Tehran. But links between the resource-rich Gulf will benefit the EU in others ways too.
France is well-placed to build such a relationship, having enhanced the EU’s links across the Mediterranean and led the way by building a military base in the UAE – probably the biggest political European gesture to the region.
An early step could be to invite the GCC Heads of States to the EU Summit in December 2008; such meeting – the first of its kind – could issue a political declaration, wowing to strengthen ties. The EU could follow up with some quick-win initiatives – like appointing an EU envoy to the GCC who could lead a European Stability Pact-style engagement process – while a dedicated EU-GCC Summit, held under the Czech EU Presidency in late 2009, could follow. Negotiations may be the only way forward, but these should be conducted not from weakness.
Crisis is nothing new to the European Union. In fact, crises have made the EU’s foreign policy what it is, filling most of Javier Solana’s office hours. But the bloc is about to face a particularly serious crisis over the likely ouster of Turkey’s democratic government by the Turkish military.
Turkey’s military views itself as the guardian of the secular principles of the Turkish state, and has carried out three coups since 1960. In 1997 it led a campaign to force from power Turkey’s first Islamist-led government. It is now gearing up to conduct another one, this time using judicial processes rather than tanks and troops.
In July, Turkey’s top court is likely to outlaw the country’s ruling party and bar its president and prime minister from politics. The AK Party is accused of trying to undermine Turkey’s secular constitution and establish an Iran-style Islamic state. The leaked diary of Turkey’s navy chief has detailed how the military have pressurized the country’s court so as to get the results they want.
This would be disastrous for Turkey. Since capturing an outright majority in the Turkish Grand National Assembly in late 2002, and after wining again in 2004, AK has undertaken an impressive array of reforms. After ramming reform packages through the legislature, the European Commission determined in October 2004 that Turkey had met all the legal requirements to begin accession talks.
Sure there have been bumps on the road. On a number of occasions the European Commission has had to warn the government. But a military coup would not only halt reforms; it would encourage a radical response from the AK Party’s supporters, who, for the second time, will be denied their democratic right. What comes after the AK may be the very thing that military says it fears: a radicalized Islamic movement that shuns compromise and democratic politics in favor of the violent destruction of Turkey’s secular state.
This can be in nobody’s interest. Turkey is not only an important strategic partner, able to assist Iraq’s reconstruction and key for stability in the Black Sea and Caspian littoral. Under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the government has shown a willingness help solve the long-standing dispute over Cyprus, support reconstruction in the Balkans and assist peace-making in the Arab-Israeli conflict. By being on the (admittedly slow) path towards European integration, Turkey also puts paid to the idea of clash of civilizations.
The EU needs to join forces with the outgoing Bush administration and communicate in clear terms that a military coup, however dressed-up, would be unacceptable and damage Turkey’s European integration. More, the White House needs to work with Congress to send a signal that a new administration – whether run by John McCain or Barack Obama – would be equally unhappy with a military take-over.
If a coup does happen, the EU should suspend – although not entirely stop – Turkey’s European integration and present a new government with a clear set of conditions for the resumption of EU-Turkey relations. NATO also needs to consider how to deal with a military-run Turkey. Having forced new members to adhere to democratic standards it cannot just accept the overthrow of Turkey’s democratic government.
Longer-term, civilian oversight over the military must be front and centre of the EU’s demands. Of the democratic reforms that Turkey has undertaken, none is more important and controversial than those related to the Turkish military’s power. For example, in December 2003, the legislature terminated the military’s exclusive control over a discretionary pool of funds that was generally used for weapons procurement. But this has clearly not been enough. A specially-created audit board should investigate all the military’s expenditures and report to parliament.
In exchange for such demands, the EU needs to re-examine what it can offer Turkey. President Nicolas Sarkozy’s call for a special relationship between the EU and Turkey will have played no small part in the military’s calculations. Though Prime Minister Erdogan has pursued pro-EU policies, he has become increasingly disillusioned with the entry negotiations. The military – while weary of EU integration, which can curtail their power in ways NATO membership cannot – will seek to play on Turkish disillusionment with the EU. Countering such propaganda will require tangible promises to a new civilian government.
GD readers may be familiar with The Kingdom, a fictional film inspired by bombings at the Riyadh compound on May 12, 2003 and the Khobar housing complex on June 26, 1996 in Saudi Arabia.
From the plot:
… the Americans are allowed a hands on approach to the crime scene and discover that the second bomb was set off in an Ambulance, and the bombs used marbles as projectiles. This revelation leads them to discover that the brother of one of the terrorists had access to ambulances and State Police uniforms, and the Police raid the house, managing to kill a few heavily armed men.
It seems fiction has become fact with news that MI5 are concerned that emergency vehicles could be used by AQ in the UK. From the Sunday Times:
Terrorists linked to Al-Qaeda may be planning to buy former NHS ambulances and police cars to mount suicide bomb attacks in Britain, MI5 has warned. They may import a tactic already used in Iraq and Israel, according to a report by MI5’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre to chief constables. In a statement to The Sunday Times, the Association of Chief Police Officers also warned of the risk of such an attack. It said ministers must legislate to stop the sale of such vehicles.
According to the Sunday Times every year dozens of police cars, ambulances and fire engines are sold and Home Office officials have now written to eBay asking it to stop selling emergency service vehicles, equipment and uniforms. However, eBay has said it will only self-regulate if a new law is passed.