by Charlie Edwards | Apr 30, 2008 | Conflict and security
Asks William Saletan over on Slate. Actually he raises a number of questions about whether suicide bombings are increasing around the world, why they might be and if so what can we do about it. The stats are revealing. According to
an article by Robin Wright of the Washington Post last week:
Suicide bombers conducted 658 attacks around the world last year … more than double the number in any of the past 25 years … More than four-fifths of the suicide bombings over that period have occurred in the past seven years, the data show. The bombings have spread to dozens of countries on five continents, killed more than 21,350 people and injured about 50,000 since 1983 … [S]ince 1983, bombers in more than 50 groups from Argentina to Algeria, Croatia to China and India to Indonesia have adapted car bombs to make explosive belts, vests, toys, motorcycles, bikes, boats, backpacks and false-pregnancy stomachs. Of 1,840 incidents in the past 25 years, more than 86 percent have occurred since 2001, and the highest annual numbers have occurred in the past four years.
(more…)
by Alex Evans | Apr 21, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system, Middle East and North Africa
Interesting times for the peak oil debate. Last week came the news that Russian oil had peaked: its Q1 oil production in 2008 fell, for the first time in a decade. Later in the week, oil touched a new all-time high of $117 after Nigerian insurgents attacked a Shell pipeline there.
And today, the news emerges from Saudi Arabia that all future investment plans for increasing capacity have been put on hold: “in a series of statements, including one by the king himself, the kingdom has warned consumers it does not believe there is a need for further expansion”. According to Carola Hoyos,
Abdullah Jum’ah, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s oil company, said in a closed-door meeting with oil ministers and executives in Rome yesterday that market signals were “imperfect” and that there were uncertainties created by the move away from oil, the world’s worsening economic outlook and the recent turbulence in the financial markets, according to one person who took notes at the discussions.
But I’m still wondering whether the problem here isn’t simply that Saudi Arabia hasn’t got any spare capacity to give, whatever it says about downturns and the terrible unfairness of climate policy.
Although we’re not quite at the point yet when you can talk about peak oil at conferences without feeling like a crank, you’d be amazed how many people think privately that the peak is pretty soon – including from governments and multilateral agencies.
Into the midst of this murky context sails a fascinating new survey from the always-good-value Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland:
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll finds that majorities in 15 of 16 nations surveyed around the world think that oil is running out and governments should make a major effort to find new sources of energy. Most think that future oil prices will be much higher. Only 22 percent on average believe that “enough new oil will be found so that it can remain a primary source of energy for the foreseeable future.” Only in Nigeria does a majority (53%) endorse the view that governments can rely on oil in the long term.
Instead, an average of 70 percent takes the position that governments should assume that “oil is running out and it is necessary to make a major effort to replace oil as a primary source of energy.” The largest majorities endorsing this view are found in South Korea (97%), France (91%), Mexico (83%) and China (80%). The smallest are in Russia (53%) and India (54%), while in Nigeria only a minority (45%) holds this view.
‘Course, you can rebut this in part by pointing out that (a) the two statements on which respondents were polled are slightly meaningless without dates, and (b) you can believe that enough oil will be found to satisfy demand by a given date while still believing that it’s “running out”; indeed, if you disagree with the second statement then you know something about geology that the rest of us don’t. Still; you get the point. Did someone say something about the wisdom of crowds?
by Charlie Edwards | Mar 31, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity
Alex and I have recently posted on the WFP’s appeal for more funds as the price of food continues to rise. Last week the price of rice began to shoot upwards sparking fears of a major rice shortage in Asia. According to experts global rice stocks are at their lowest since 1976. However some commentators aren’t convinced and argue that despite the sharp increase the fundamental balance between supply and demand remains largely intact. But are their voices loud and frequent enough for prices to drop and calm to return.
Not at the moment… last week’s turbulence (trigged by Egypt and Cambodia which banned rice exports) saw rice stocks jump 30 per cent in international markets causing the Vietnamese Government to announced it would reduce rice exports this year to 3.5m tons, from a projection of between 4m and 4.5m tons. India meanwhile has raised its minimum export price to $1,000 (€635, £500) per ton, up from $650 per ton, in a bid to keep domestic prices low.
One possible consequence of this run on rice is an increase in social unrest (food riots have broken out in Egypt, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso in the past week) which has led donor organisations to ask for more funding to maintain food distribution programmes.
According to the WFP $50m would buy 189,000 tons of food last year in Afghanistan, which would feed 3.5m people. This year, the same amount would buy only 112,000 tons to feed 1.9m.
by Alex Evans | Mar 18, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system
As the dollar, together with US equity and bond markets, continue an apparently inexorable slide downards, everyone’s been piling into safety – and especially into commodities. But as David Roche comments, “With global equity market capitalisation almost 10 times the notional value of commodity derivatives, the rush to commodities by investors has been like squeezing a quart into a pint pot.”
Opinion has been split on how much of the buoyancy in commodity prices is due to this short term price bubble; Martin Wolf, for instance, argued a couple of weeks ago that “Speculation seems not to be that important. If it were, inventories would be soaring. But they are not.” Still, that was then, and this is now – after the collapse of Bear Stearns, when the flight to safety looks more like a panic rush.
David Roche’s argument, though, is that the commodities bubble will prove short term because global recession will take the heat out of demand for commodities – for “contrary to received wisdom, economic decoupling [between the US and emerging economies] is unlikely.” Well, he may well be right about the decoupling, at any rate; Nouriel Roubini has also been saying so for a while, and he’s been pretty accurate so far.
So if the world does hit a serious downturn, and if commodity prices do take a tumble as a result, does that mean we can all relax about food prices? Not for long. Here’s why.
(more…)
by Alex Evans | Mar 12, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Economics and development, Global system
That’s the headline conclusion of an IPS analysis piece by John Vandaele. Average GDP growth in developing countries today is 7 per cent, compared to 3 per cent for developed countries; and even per capita income grew faster in South than North between 2003 and 2007 (old news in East and South Asia, but a big shift in Latin America and Asia). And whereas in 1980 developed country GDP was 23 times higher than in developing countries, it was 18 times higher in 2007. Vandaele comments:
East and South Asia are almost exclusively responsible for this. For Africa, Latin America and the so-called transition economies (former communist countries), the relative gap is much wider today then in 1980. Nevertheless the last five years show a generalised improvement in the South. More and more, South-South relations play a role in the world’s economy. India and China thrive because of their industrial and services success, but their boom drives up commodity prices, and so benefits even quite weak economies in Africa and Latin America. South-South interaction makes globalisation a tide that lifts almost all boats.
But, he goes on, “inside most countries, income inequality is on the rise” – faster in developing than developed countries, and fastest of all in China.
Between 2001 and 2003 the Chinese economy grew 10 percent each year, but the 10 percent bottom earners lost 2.5 percent in income, according to the World Bank. Official figures show that the difference between the top 20 percent and the bottom 20 percent grew 40 percent over the last three years.
(more…)
