by Alex Evans | Oct 20, 2007 | Climate and resource scarcity
The BBC’s Roger Harrabin has an alarming story this morning, picking up on a new 10 year long study from the University of East Anglia. The headline: the amount of carbon dioxide soaked up by the world’s oceans halved between the mid 1990s and 2000-2005.
This is really bad news. Prior to the period covered by this study, we were able to rely on natural carbon ‘sinks’ like the ocean or forest cover soaking up much of the CO2 that we emitted through burning fossil fuels – about 60 per cent of it. If, as the UEA study suggests, natural sinks are now becoming saturated, then that means we have much less of a buffer – and that in order to keep CO2 levels beneath any given ceiling, we’ll have to reduce emissions by a lot more than would have been the case if sinks were still working properly. Everything just becomes more urgent, in other words.
Unfortunately, the news is not a total surprise either. Until a few years back, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were increasing at a rate of about 1 part per million each year (CO2 concentration levels were 280ppm in pre-industrial times, and are 384ppm today). Now, that rate of increase is somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5ppm a year. While global emissions have increased a lot over the last decade, not least because of rapid growth in emerging economies like China, there’s no way that emissions growth alone could have accounted for such a steep increase in the rate of concentration growth. Sink failure looked like the obvious culprit – and the UEA study provides evidence for just that conclusion.
Things just got more serious.
by Alex Evans | Oct 16, 2007 | North America
Hillary Clinton and John McCain both have essays about their visions for foreign policy in the new edition of Foreign Affairs. We’ll do a proper commentary on both within the next few days (just as soon as we’ve completed the papers on climate change and on public diplomacy that have been making our lives a misery for the past fortnight…) – but in the meantime here’s a brief taster of Hillary’s plans and designs:
- On Iraq: We must withdraw from Iraq in a way that brings our troops home safely, begins to restore stability to the region, and replaces military force with a new diplomatic initiative to engage countries around the world in securing Iraq’s future. To that end, as president, I will convene the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the secretary of defense, and the National Security Council and direct them to draw up a clear, viable plan to bring our troops home, starting within the first 60 days of my administration.
- On non-proliferation: To reassert our nonproliferation leadership, I will seek to negotiate an accord that substantially and verifiably reduces the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. This dramatic initiative would send a strong message of nuclear restraint to the world, while we retain enough strength to deter others from trying to match our arsenal. I will also seek Senate approval of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2009, the tenth anniversary of the Senate’s initial rejection of the agreement. This would enhance the United States’ credibility when demanding that other nations refrain from testing. As president, I will support efforts to supplement the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Establishing an international fuel bank that guaranteed secure access to nuclear fuel at reasonable prices would help limit the number of countries that pose proliferation risks.
- On China: Our relationship with China will be the most important bilateral relationship in the world in this century. The United States and China have vastly different values and political systems, yet even though we disagree profoundly on issues ranging from trade to human rights, religious freedom, labor practices, and Tibet, there is much that the United States and China can and must accomplish together. China’s support was important in reaching a deal to disable North Korea’s nuclear facilities. We should build on this framework to establish a Northeast Asian security regime. But China’s rise is also creating new challenges. The Chinese have finally begun to realize that their rapid economic growth is coming at a tremendous environmental price. The United States should undertake a joint program with China and Japan to develop new clean-energy sources, promote greater energy efficiency, and combat climate change. This program would be part of an overall energy policy that would require a dramatic reduction in U.S. dependence on foreign oil. We must persuade China to join global institutions and support international rules by building on areas where our interests converge and working to narrow our differences. Although the United States must stand ready to challenge China when its conduct is at odds with U.S. vital interests, we should work for a cooperative future.
- On climate change: Far from being a drag on global growth, climate control represents a powerful economic opportunity that can be a driver of growth, jobs, and competitive advantage in the twenty-first century. As president, I will make the fight against global warming a priority. We cannot solve the climate crisis alone, and the rest of the world cannot solve it without us. The United States must reengage in international climate change negotiations and provide the leadership needed to reach a binding global climate agreement. But we must first restore our own credibility on the issue. Rapidly emerging countries, such as China, will not curb their own carbon emissions until the United States has demonstrated a serious commitment to reducing its own through a market-based cap-and-trade approach. We must also help developing nations build efficient and environmentally sustainable domestic energy infrastructures. Two-thirds of the growth in energy demand over the next 25 years will come from countries with little existing infrastructure. Many opportunities exist here as well: Mali is electrifying rural communities with solar power, Malawi is developing a biomass energy strategy, and all of Africa can provide carbon credits to the West. Finally, we must create formal links between the International Energy Agency and China and India and create an “E-8” international forum modeled on the G-8. This group would be comprised of the world’s major carbon-emitting nations and hold an annual summit devoted to international ecological and resource issues.
by Alex Evans | Oct 15, 2007 | East Asia and Pacific
Tomorrow’s New York Times has a helpful and comprehensive summary of goings-on during day one of the 17th Communist Party Congress in Beijing. Among the highlights of Hu Jintao’s two and a half hour speech:
He called the international situation favorable to China, saying a “trend toward a multipolar world is irreversible.” He offered to hold peace talks with Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its territory, as long as the island’s leadership sets aside independence goals.
In defining “scientific development,” Mr. Hu discussed the growing gap between rich and poor. He said the economy relies too much on investment and not enough on consumption, and that the leadership should do more to protect the environment.
“We must adopt an enlightened approach to development that results in expanded production, a better life and sound ecological and environmental conditions,” he said.
Mr. Hu repeatedly used the word democracy and said the party should become more responsive to the public. He also called for “intra-party democracy,” or allowing more party officials to participate in decision making.
Corruption, he said, poses a threat to the party’s survival, a particularly resonant issue after the leadership purged the former Shanghai Party boss, Chen Liangyu, in one of the highest-level corruption scandals in its history.
by Alex Evans | Oct 9, 2007 | Influence and networks, South Asia
At ForeignPolicy.com, Blake’s been doing some research into the standard media assumption that China is Burma’s biggest trading partner. While China is indeed the main provider of Burma’s imports, it turns out that it’s the destination for just 5.3 per cent of the exports coming out of Burma. So what’s the number one export destination? Thailand – for no less than 49 per cent of Burmese exports. Blake concludes:
Bottom line: Be very skeptical when reading accounts of how China, or any country, can put meaningful pressure on the junta.
by Alex Evans | Oct 8, 2007 | Europe and Central Asia
David Miliband’s blog links to something I missed in the FT last week: the formation of a new European Council on Foreign Relations, as a complement / competitor to its American counterpart. The article announcing its launch – penned by Martti Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer, Mark Leonard and Mabel van Oranje, is candid about the EU’s foreign policy failings:
Despite these successes [single market, generous aid budget, lots of peacekeepers, uses incentives instead of threatening to invade people, leadership on WTO, Kyoto, International Criminal Court and so on], the EU continues to underperform on the world stage. Since the Iraq war and the French and Dutch No votes on the constitutional treaty, the EU has shown the faltering confidence of adolescence. European leaders, who struggle to adapt to a new global environment characterised by a weakened US, a resurgent Russia and a rising China, have too often turned inwards.
Instead, they continue, Europe needs to get its act together on issues like enlargement, Russia and the Middle East. To do this, it needs to rally behind Javier Solana; take a more co-ordinated approach; and think hard about additional incentives to draw the EU’s immediate neighbours into its sphere of influence.
