Doing some Google “research” this morning, I dug up this 1977 Foreign Affairs piece by Stanley Hoffmann on “The Uses of American Power”. You wouldn’t need to alter much of the opening to suppose it was from the latest edition…
There has been much discussion in the last few years about the decline of American power. While American military capabilities remain enormous thanks largely to persistent technological advance and while the American economy remains the most powerful in the world, many observers have noted the discrepancy between capabilities and achievements. As the fall of Indochina, the rise of OPEC and recent events in Angola attest, the United States has had difficulty shaping the movements and outcomes of world affairs.
American power has been inhibited by several factors. First among these has been the increase in the number of actors on the world’s stage. This has led to a greater emphasis on multilateral diplomacy and has allowed many of the new actors, though weak, to form coalitions which have damped the use of American power, particularly in arenas where the resort to force is inapplicable.
Second, the exercise of American power has been inhibited by the increased economic interdependence of the world. Measures aimed at hurting others can boomerang, injuring allies or those whose cooperation we might seek in other areas. Our very interest in preserving the open world economy from cartels or an epidemic of protectionist measures induces us to seek compromises even on efforts, such as the exploitation of the seabeds, which we could undertake on our own.
Hoffmann adds growing Soviet military reach as a third factor – whatever you think of China’s hard power, it’s not quite on the same level yet. Conversely, the economic fundamentals are even less favorable to the U.S. – although that has only reinforced the interdependence effect, for reasons any semi-capable IR undergrad can explain at length. Still, it’s useful for sprightly young(ish) analysts such as those of us who blog here to recall that we’re actually retreading old themes…
