I’d dropped my plan to do weekly scorecards on events in Kosovo, not least because bigger and better-informed Balkan-watchers like ICG are on the case. But the recent violence in Mitrovica brings me back to an argument I made in the first days after sort-of-independence was declared: that the best plan for the Kosovo Serbs is to use limited violence that keeps to the international community off balance. (Before I’m accused of anything: I’m not advocating this plan, or even on the side of the Serbs, I’m just saying that it makes sense analytically).
Events in Mitrovica have followed this logic. A group of Kosovo Serbs seized the courthouse; the UN police had to retreat, with eighty injured and one killed; NATO moved in to push the Serbs out. Mitrovica has calmed down now, but the full impact of this mini-crisis is yet to be seen: it’s recrimination time. The Serbs claim that NATO didn’t need to move in because they had already negotiated a deal with the UN. The Russians are saying that NATO used excessive force. And now Gerry Galluci, the top UN official in Mitrovica (who, oddly, is on holiday) has tried to resign over how the situation was handled. Somehow or other, his report leaked to Kosovo Serb leaders who duly handed it to the press. Extracts:
The report says that the raid was a “badly planned operation to restore law and order in the north, which has led to the disappearance of law and order”.
“Our credibility and relations necessary for our peacekeeping role in the north have been seriously, perhaps irreversibly jeopardized. Now we can all see that Serbs have a clear goal, that they are well organized and well armed. All in all, it must be clear that the use of force (by the international community) to achieve political goals related to (Kosovo’s) status will not work.”
Galluci also suggested that UNMIK must “admit its mistakes and repent for what has been done” in order to continue communicating with the Serbs in the north.
“Not only have we no moral or legal basis to use force, but it yields no results,” Galluci concludes.
Now Galuci has a long-standing reputation as a “cowboy”, and I think I’m on safe ground if I say that the bulk of senior UN, EU and NATO people in Kosovo aren’t exactly fans. But given the nervousness of many Western governments about what they’ve created in Kosovo, there’ll be quite a few officials looking at this report and finding a lot to agree with. Next time the Serbs seize something or other, there’ll be a lot of voices arguing for longer negotiations and less force. NATO and the UN won’t necessarily agree on what to do – and if the internationals start to lose coherence, things will start to go bad in Kosovo. Fast.
