While everyone still seems to be aghast that Kosovo’s declaration of independence somehow hasn’t resulted in unrestrained Sweetness and Light flooding across the Western Balkans, the general media line that “we are teetering on the edge of a precipice” isn’t entirely sustainable. Yes, sustained violence by the Kosovo Serbs has made life exceedingly difficult for the international presence. And yes, the assault on the U.S. embassy in Belgrade is a reminder that this isn’t just about a few weeks of posturing and rhetoric – people are very angry.
And as I noted a few days ago, the Kosovo Serbs may have identified clever tactics to exploit NATO’s weaknesses. But for all that, I’d still be pretty satisfied with how things have gone if I were a Kosovo Albanian. Five reasons why:
- The thuggish faction among the Kosovo Albanians has been kept in check: it’s clear that a lot of the Serb provocations over the last week have been aimed at getting the Kosovo Albanians to reply in kind. Before independence, UN officials almost all assumed that “some idiot will burn down a Serb’s house in week one”. That would give Belgrade a huge publicity boost. But that hasn’t happened – yet.
- The thuggish faction in Serbia is winning all the attention: Belgrade’s best hope for managing the crisis was to keep looking like the injured party. The huge peaceful rally that preceded the assault on the U.S. embassy was a good example of how to get that message across: a nation mourns, etc. But then a few cretins go after the embassy, and the headline is: a nation riots. No wonder that moderate President Boris Tadic and his allies have been lamenting “one of Belgrade’s saddest days”.
- Russian rhetoric is already starting to look bankrupt: there’s been much excitement because Russia’s ambassador to NATO has talked of using “brute force” if the EU and NATO break with the UN. Well, perhaps we are on the road to World War III, but another interpretation is that Moscow is actually pretty short on leverage and has thus had to play this card extremely early. Remember, Boris Yeltsin warned in 1999 that a NATO intervention in Kosovo would result in “a European war for sure and maybe a world war.” New crisis, same old play-book – even if the smell of vodka is less these days.
- The Europeans aren’t making utter fools of themselves: things looked bad at the start of the week when Spain signaled that it couldn’t support independence, but Spanish NATO troops have still been involved in handling disturbances. The big question was whether Germany would waver – it hasn’t. I’m not as confident as Daniel Korski that the EU has crossed a rubicon, but it hasn’t turned tail either.
- Lots of money is coming Kosovo’s way: welcoming Kosovo’s independence, George Bush pledged $335 million in aid – that’s about three times the level of U.S. aid last year. And there’ll be more to come from the EU. Of course, much of it will disappear one way or another, but would you say no?
It may all go horribly wrong tomorrow, or in a week, or a month or whatever. But don’t be fooled by all the shots of burning border-posts – by the (admittedly low) standards of post-Yugoslav state formation, this isn’t a bad start.
