Oh dear, what has Robert D Kaplan been smoking? Here he is writing about Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s recent aggressive actions and the strategic situation in North Asia…
“And so Kim lives in dread of the Chinese slowly, methodically undermining his regime in a way that will lead to him being replaced—in a palace coup, perhaps—without the implosion of the North Korean state.
His only hope is to draw America into direct talks, with Washington implicitly recognizing his regime, so that he can leverage Washington against Beijing. Nuclear tests and missile launches are his own warped way of trying to get the attention of the new Obama Administration. He needs to be enough of a problem that Washington will have no choice but to deal with him directly, rather than merely as one party among several in the multilateral talks that have characterized negotiations with North Korea since 2003.”
Two issues here.
Firstly, how the hell does Kaplan know what Kim thinks? Reclusive tyrant, secretive society – enough said.
Secondly, the notion that Kim’s trying to snuggle up to the Americans by threatening war seems contrived. Another explanation that’s been bandied about, that Kim’s acting tough as part of a plan to ensure the succession of youngest son Kim Jong Un, also sounds fanciful. With both explanations, it’s hard to see the connection between (a) diplomatic manoeuvre / internal succession issue and (b) firing test missiles, detonating a nuclear device and threatening war.
Here’s a simpler interpretation of North Korea’s actions. Kim and his generals live in a militarized, tightly controlled and isolated society. They’re conditioned to see the outside world through a thick ideological lens. This includes the belief that all foreign powers are implacably hostile to the regime’s interests. Displays of aggression, to scare off enemies, are standard reactions when North Korea feels threatened.
In this case, just what the threats are – real or perceived – is anyone’s guess.
