Prince William, the second in line to the British throne, just finished a trip to Afghanistan, which probably happened at the same time as Taliban gunmen failed to kill Afghan President Hamid Karzai and a slew of international officials.
Despite Prince William’s safe return and President Karzai’s lucky escape, it should be clear to anyone that things are not going particularly well for NATO’s Afghan mission.
All is not lost, but it could be unless there is a change of strategy. What should such a change entail?
First, the international community must hold the Afghan government and itself to commitments already agreed – such as the vetting process for governors, police chiefs and other senior officials. More than anything, in the next two years of institution-building means ensuring that the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are beyond reproach.
Second, the international community must help the government re-launch outreach to the Taliban and other combatants. The Afghan government’s cafeteria-style approach, whereby Taliban who offer themselves up are given parlay, does not work. It needs to be re-launched and focused on strategic “targets”, i.e. mid-ranking “pragmatic” Taliban leaders. A package of financial and other incentives – including genuine security guarantees – should be developed.
In practical terms, European countries should commit to sending more trainers and civilians while lifting some of the 60 “caveats” which hamper NATO soldiers’ effectiveness. The EU’s police mission, universally seen as underpowered, must be radically rethought and perhaps augmented by the European Gendarmerie Force, which can more easily operate in the provinces. A study should be carried out into expanding the Afghan National Army from its currently size of 70.000 to 200.000 – even it will become reliant on external funding for a decade.
As a way of moving beyond the PRTs, the EU should examine the possibility of taking responsibility for rebuilding Afghanistan’s twelve largest cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazari Sharif, Kunduz, Taluqan Puli Khumri, Jalalabad, Charikar, Sheberghan, Ghazni, Sari Pul) developing comprehensive politico/economic/security plans for each. Afghan security forces, with NATO support, should be able to hold any of these areas and such a set-up – enshrined in a long-term, municipally-focused EU-Afghanistan agreement – could serve as a way to supersede the PRT model. The best place to start would be Kabul.
Supporting a new strategy in Afghanistan should be a new approach to the region. There can be no lasting stability in either country until Afghanistan and Pakistan move away from mutual suspicion and policies of interference in each others affairs. This, in turn, means dealing with Pakistan-India relations.
Recent developments in Pakistan could help. To take advantage of the opening afforded by the elections, the EU should appoint a wise men’s committee, along the lines of the U.S. Baker-Hamilton commission, chaired by a prominent European, to develop a new EU approach to the region, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
