You still with me? Then there’s the politics. EU elections in late 2009 will be key, as the European Parliament has a say on some of the slots. Right now, the centre-right EPP holds power and last time pushed to install current European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso in 2005. But a swing to the left, will impact choices.
Politics in the EU-27 also matters. Right now, the return of Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi would seem to favour centre-right candidates, yet Poland’s new centre-left government may counterbalance this. But the centre/left divide is not always a useful guide; right-wing Nicola Sarkozy has publicly backed New Labour’s Tony Blair. In the EU context, the federal/intergovernmental is important.
Have I lost you? Good. So with all this, who’s in the running?
Tony Blair is said to be dusting off his book of donors. He’s been backed by the Elysée and – probably through clenched teeth – his successor at No. 10. But for a number of reasons, principally the Iraq War, his candidacy will be unacceptable by many European governments. His polar opposite is Jean-Claude Juncker, the chain-smoking, long-serving Luxembourgian Prime Minister. But both Britain and most Eastern European countries will never accept him.
In the end, the two will probably cancel each other out. After Ireland’s Prime Minister Bertie Ahern resigned – and fights a corruption investigation – the two to watch are Denmark’s Anders Fogh Rassmussen, who after almost eight years in power may be looking for a way out; and Guy Verhofstadt, the former Liberal Belgian Prime Minister, who is may be getting bored with book-writing and is said to be backed by the Socialists in the European Parliament.
But Denmark remains Europe’s “odd man out” with op-outs in a number of key policy areas, including the Euro and ESDP. Getting rid of these is key for Mr. Fogh Rasmussen’s candidacy. But polls don’t look so good and his heir apparent is in trouble.
Without a referendum, Mr. Fogh Rasmussen may bank on the NATO job – a job he’d have a good chance to get given Denmark’s pro-US stance. Mr. Verhofstadt, in turn, is probably too federal for the UK and, to quite the Independent, “too flaky for the French and Germans” to take the EU’s top job. Therefore, the msart money has EC chief Jose Manuel Barroso moving to the Council President slot.
On to the next job – the foreign policy slot. Though Javier Solana is likely to be hold the position during an interim period, many EU countries are keen to see him go. That means Sweden’s foreign minister, Carl Bildt, is in with a chance – if the opinionated Northerner does not make too many enemies in the meantime.
A dark horse could be Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. But more realistically, the job will go to Bernard Kouchner, France foreign minister. It will be tough for President Sarkozy to find someone to replace him at the Quay, but the EU slot may be worth the loss.
That leaves the Commission President. With a right-wing southerner as Council President, a left-wing Frenchman as High Representative, and a right-leaning Liberal Dane as NATO Secretary-General, the most likely candidates for the EC’s top job will be a German or an eastern European.
If the European elections see a centre-right victory, but the left-wing winning the German elections (with more votes than the CDU but still needing a Grand Coalition), then Angela Merkel may be a candidate. Otherwise, a Polish or perhaps a Czech candidate is likely.
Now, the EU only needs to figure out what half these jobs need to do and say when the U.S calls. . . .
