…you may have noticed that all is not well. The British troops in Basra (both of them) are needless to say staying out of the way. But as the Yorskhire Ranter reports,
…inevitably, the US authorities seem to have swallowed the “southern surge” thing, and are now pressing for more British troops to be sent – not just that, but for an advance back into Basra.
This is genuinely bugfuck insane and the Prime Minister has no choice but to reject it; there is literally no-one left. Army planners are already looking at calling out at least 2 Territorial Army [= reservist – ed.] battalions in their entirety to cover routine tasks; a mass of resources is going into Afghanistan; there is some question as to whether there is another brigade in the tubes for the next but one rotation in Iraq. The inter-allied shit just hit the fan.
Meanwhile, John Robb reckons that Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi army
has the ability to shut down, indefinitely, all oil production (a million barrels a day) in southern Iraq. This effort will cost the government tens of millions in revenues for each day of the conflict. It may prove be the most effective means of prematurely terminating Maliki’s offensive.
Bill Lind, for his part, thinks that “For about half a year, we have been enjoying something of a lull in the war in Iraq … Events begin to suggest that the lull is ending and Mars is in the ascendant.” His analysis of what caused the lull, and why it seems set to fracture, is well worth the time.
Update: Kevin Drum has thoughtfully provided a cheat sheet on who’s fighting who in Basra –
- ISCI = SIIC = new name for SCIRI = Badr Corps = “aristocratic” Hakim family = exiles during Saddam Hussein’s reign = pro-Iran = generally in control of army and security forces = pro-U.S. = ally of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Dawa Party.
- Mahdi Army = JAM = “firebrand cleric” Muqtada al-Sadr = Iraqi nationalists = originally part of Maliki’s governing coalition but no longer = anti-U.S. = populist/working class orientation = controls much of the oil sector in Basra.
- “Special groups” = rogue elements of the Mahdi Army = maybe Sadr is just as happy to have Maliki take these guys out for him, but who knows for sure?
- Fadhila = ex-allies of Sadr = won some elections in Basra in 2005 = smallest of the three Shiite factions in the south.
