Dan Korski at ECFR has a new report out today entitled Afghanistan: Europe’s forgotten war (summary; press release; full report). The EU doesn’t come out of it very well: “EU countries have treated the common effort in Afghanistan like a pot-luck dinner where every guest is free to bring his own dish”, says Dan. Key points from the report:
Need for a ‘grand bargain’ – As part of a ‘grand bargain’, the EU should deploy more troops in Afghanistan, relax restrictions on their troops – the so-called ‘caveats’ – and reverse the decline in development aid. In exchange, the US should accept a shift from a strategy based on combat operations to one focused on overall political impact, and the protection of ordinary civilians across the country. It should also abandon its failed counter-narcotics strategy.
Political inclusion – The international coalition should include mid-ranking, moderate insurgents in the political process, and help President Hamid Karzai to eventually reach a political settlement with his opponents. Negotiations with the Taliban are now unavoidable and the current status quo untenable.
EU underperformance – So far, the majority of EU governments have only made a symbolic contribution to the military effort – with Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland and Portugal at the bottom of the list. (As an example, Austria has contributed a mere 3 soldiers, Ireland only 7, while Luxembourg 9. This stands in contrast to the UK’s 7000 troops, Germany’s 3000 and The Netherlands’ 1500.)
New counter-narcotics strategy – The international coalition should design a new approach to counter-narcotics and abandon all earlier plans for aerial spraying, or schemes for buying up opium crops. Instead, they should make clear that traffickers and their protectors, not farmers, are the problem. The emphasis should be placed on arresting and prosecuting drug lords and their backers in government.
Local delivery – The international community should prioritise local governance and rule-of-law reforms. Assistance efforts need to be refocused around delivering clear benefits on the ground, through strengthening provincial administrations, and ensuring that the Afghan police contribute to, rather than undermine, the safety of civilians.
UN super envoy – The ‘grand bargain’ agenda would require leadership that cuts across military, political and development lines, as well as institutional boundaries. The new UN envoy should be a double-hatted leader, bearing responsibility for the leadership of both the UN and NATO. This super envoy should be endorsed by the European Union, and the set-up should be cemented through a new UN Security Council resolution.
Given Paddy Ashdown’s appointment last week as UN Envoy to Afghanistan, it’s doubtless worth reading the report in some detail: Dan was Ashdown’s head of political / military affairs in Bosnia.
Also: the debate between UK Ambassador to Afghanistan Sherard Cowper-Coles and author Rory Stewart in the current edition of Prospect is well worth a look. (Sadly it’s not available online unless you’re a subscriber, or willing to cough up for the article.) I assumed when I began reading it that it would all be rather consensual as Prospect debates go. Uh-uh…
