Reuters and AFP are both carrying the intriguing story of a wargame / simulation exercise held in Washington yesterday to explore how the National Security Council would manage an energy crunch scenario set in 2009 – with an all-star line up of former Presidential advisers and top officials as players, including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (as National Security Adviser in the game), Richard Armitage (Secretary of State), John Abizaid (Chair of the JCS), Gene Sperling (Treasury Secretary), Philip Zelikow (Director of National Intelligence) and Mike McCurry (White House Chief of Staff).
The scenario they played starts on 4 May 2009, when saboteurs successfully shut down the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, removing a million barrels of oil a day from world markets. Oil prices rise from the mid $90s to $115 a barrel. As the stock market plummets, possible Russian or Iranian involvement in the blast is posited. As the game goes on, more and more variables are introduced to render the Storm ever more Perfect. A secret uranium enrichment plant is discovered in Iran; oil production in Nigeria is curtailed by rebel attacks; Iran, and then Venezuela, respond to sanctions by reducing oil supplies, sending the price sailing past $150 a barrel.
Predictably, it all goes rather pear-shaped as divergent priorities lead to the requisite inter-agency cooperations failing to materialise. Reuters describes the bunfight:
The president’s political adviser, played by former Clinton-era White House press secretary Mike McCurry, worried about the backlash of $4 gasoline prices ahead of an impending mid-term election in 2010.
“How the hell do you expect me to go sell that?” McCurry said of a nationwide speed limit. “Eat your peas messages aren’t going to go very far with the American people.”
When the subject of tapping the strategic oil reserve came up, the Defense Secretary reminded the group that the military should get first dibs on the oil.
“Before … I let you stick your fingers into the oil it has got to get into our tanks,” said John Lehman, former Navy Secretary [playing the Secretary of Defense].
As the meeting unfolded, things went from bad to worse.
…so much so, in fact, that by the end of the exercise the Secretary of Defense is calling for the return of the draft, noting that “we are facing a mortal threat to our way of life”.
The wargame, called “Oil Shockwave”, was organised by two energy policy groups – Securing American’s Future Energy (SAFE) and the Bipartisan Policy Center – in a very smart piece of political theatre designed to make a point. Which is, according to Robert Rubin in SAFE’s own news release, that:
“Oil ShockWave demonstrates the critical importance of preventative action in mitigating the risks of oil dependence. Once a major supply crisis occurs, the short-term options are extremely limited. The profound nature of the risks to our economy and security argue for concerted action to enact a national energy policy designed to reduce oil dependence.”
