I’ve just given a talk to 120 + senior officers at the Australian Command and Staff College on national security. My talk was deliberately aimed at the strategic level and focused on three interrelated areas: the new geography of risk, the connecting the dots concept, and the system vulnerabilities associated with strategic myopia.
The Australian and British defence establishments face many similar issues but one in particular shines out: the lack of a strategic capability in the system, in the sense that the connections between the tactical and operational levels are often separate to, and removed from, the strategic decision making cycle (hence the failings of the current defence planning assumptions). This, I realise, is hardly new and experts more qualified than I have talked at length about the sub-strategic behaviour that characterises much of UK Defence. But as I made clear in my talk this morning this is not a criticism of an individual. It is a recognition that the system is broke.
However a window of opportunity is about to present itself (possibly). Plans are afoot to recruit a new Director of Strategy at the MoD this autumn. There is a slim possibility that Des Browne may be moved in a summer reshuffle. Both these ‘opportunities’ must be set against the background of cuts in the defence budget – something like £5 Billion over the next three years. Taken together all three things offer the MoD a real opportunity to refocus, rearm (metaphorically) and redeploy.
But this will require a new Minister to have an ‘open mind’. The very worst thing that could happen is for Gordon Brown to chose a ‘safe pair of hands’. Given current circumstances this may sound counter-intuitive, but bear with me. There is probably 22 months or so before a General Election. Short-termism and political expediency dictates an experienced operator should ‘hold the fort’ for the remaining period but given the current political, operational and military climate that would be suicide – lots of things need to change now not post 2010.
The MoD has long been considered a political backwater for aspiring politicians, by Labour MPs especially. Education, health and latterly development have been the portfolios of choice. But the MoD is crying out for change – a (youngish) Minister with an open mind is the best bet for the future of UK Defence, not a tired ‘safe pair of hands’ riding out his last term in office.
