Food price shock moves another step closer

by | Jan 13, 2011 | Climate and resource scarcity, Economics and development

So much for my observation a week ago that the new record high on the FAO Food Price Index hadn’t led to widespread unrest yet – almost immediately afterwards, Algeria erupted in rioting, as was widely reported at the time. But two other developments in the past week are worth noting too:

First, the major dust-up underway in Argentina between farmers’ organisations and the government, over the charged issue of export restrictions. The government wants to limit wheat exports to only 8 million tonnes of the country’s 14 million tonne total. Farmers are furious, as they want to export more. As the FT’s Beyond BRICs blog notes, “The breakdown in talks heralds the end of an uneasy peace that has existed between the two sides since a bitter conflict in 2008 over taxes levied on soya exports. That led to farmers blocking roads, food shortages in Argentina’s major cities, a drastic fall in exports and a subsequent price rise on world grain markets.”

Second, the US government just cut stock forecasts dramatically for key grain crops, pushing corn and soya to their highest level since the price spike – so much for my observation that so far, the new price spike wasn’t afflicting grains all that much. Here’s the money quote, again courtesy of the FT:

Dan Basse, president of AgResource, a Chicago-based forecaster, added: “There’s just no room for error any more. With any kind of weather problem in the upcoming growing season we will make new all-time highs in corn and soy, and to a lesser degree wheat futures.”

Is this anyone’s idea of a good time?

by | Jan 12, 2011 | Influence and networks, Off topic, UK

Do you live in London?  Do you have plans for Tuesday 8 February?  Does this event at the Southbank Centre sound like your idea of a good time?

Following the success of the 2010 sell-out Think Tank Clash we’ve invited the UK’s leading think tanks including Demos, IPPR, ResPublica, Policy Exchange, Reform, the Fabian Society and others to compete in Think Tank Clash II hosted by writer, broadcaster and comedy scriptwriter John O’Farrell, author of The Best a Man Can Get.

Based on the model of a sound system clash, some of the leading minds of the UK’s think tanks compete to persuade the audience with the power of their ideas. Calling on star witnesses to support their arguments, Think Tank Clash II examines notions of truth, justice, respect and community in a series of tightly timed sessions. No jargon allowed, no rambling and no abstentions as the audience decides who wins.

Ideas are the new house music! Policy geeks are the new Chemical Brothers!!

I despair.

Kosovo re-assessed?

by | Jan 12, 2011 | Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia

I’ve written on the BBC Editors site about whether the Kosovo intervention is being reassessed in the light of allegations against Prime Minister Thaci

Kosovo has been back on the front pages in recent weeks with lurid allegations against its Prime Minister and dominant politician, Hashim Thaci, accusing him of involvement in organised crime and even harvesting human organs for sale for profit.  Mr Thaci has denied the allegations. 

Mr Thaci has also been in the news as his party was accused of vote rigging in last month’s parliamentary elections which were the first organised by the Kosovo government. This week, the vote had to be rerun in some of Mr Thaci’s strongholds and a new government should be formed in the next few weeks. 

Why is this interesting to people who don’t follow affairs in south east Europe closely? Read More

Ten principles of good strategy making

by | Jan 12, 2011 | Cooperation and coherence, UK

As preparation for this afternoon’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee hearing, one of the papers I’m looking at the Public Administration Select Committee’s excellent report (pdf) on Who Does UK National Strategy? 

The whole report is worth reading, and pulls no punches about the strategic deficit that bedevils UK policy on global risks: “the overwhelming view from our witnesses was that the UK is not good at making National Strategy and there is little sense of a national direction or purpose”. And so:

This leads us to the profoundly disturbing conclusion that an understanding of  National Strategy and an appreciation of why it is important has indeed largely been  lost. As a consequence, strategic thinking has atrophied. We have failed to maintain the  education of strategic thinkers, both in academia and in governmental institutions. The  UK lacks a body of knowledge on strategy. Our processes  for making strategy have become weakened and the ability of the military and the Civil Service to identify those  people who are able to operate and think at the strategic level is poor

Some of the quotes from oral and written evidence given to the Committee are positively hair raising – as for instance when an official who’d served in the Chief of Defence Staff’s office recalls being told in Afghanistan that “there’s no plan, Sir. We’re just getting on with it”.

What to do about all this? The Committee’s recommendations are very good, but especially helpful is this distillation of principles that can, in the Committee’s words, “form the basis of an agreed ‘grammar’ for a renewed strategic literacy amongst practitioners”:

i. investment of time and energy by ministers to create an ‘appetite’ for strategic thinking; 

ii. a definition of long-term national interests both domestic and international;  

iii. consideration of all options and possibilities, including those which challenge established thinking and settled policies; 

iv. consideration of the constraints and limitations which apply to such options and
possibilities;

v. a comprehensive understanding of the resources available; 

vi. good quality staff work to develop strategy; 

vii. access to the widest possible expertise beyond government; 

viii. a structure which ensures the process happens; 

ix. audit, evaluation and critical challenge; and

x. Parliamentary oversight to ensure scrutiny and accountability.

Amen to all that. It’s a long way from where we are now.