Reserves, Foreign Relations and Risk in the 4-speed world

by | Apr 24, 2011 | Africa, Cooperation and coherence, East Asia and Pacific, Global system

I’ve been struck by a lot of thought provoking stuff in the Economist over the last couple weeks on China suggesting greater global risks in the near future due to three things (health warning – I am not a China expert):

1. China’s reserves (aka 50% of the global imbalances)

These continue to grow: China now has $3 trillion which enough to buy the debt of struggling debt-laden, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain AND have enough left over to buy Microsoft, Google, IBM and Apple AND all the real estate in Manhattan and Washington AND the 50 most valuable sports teams or alternatively China could buy all the gold in the world plus all US military equipment and have a $1trillion to spare.

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India: the super-prudent superpower?

by | Apr 21, 2011 | Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Global system, South Asia

Over at Mint, my colleague W.P.S. Sidhu reflects on the BRICS summit in Sanya, where the big non-Western powers were in a non-interventionist mood…

While the categorical assertion in the Sanya Declaration that the BRICS “share the principle that the use of force should be avoided” is commendable as a tenet, ruling out the use of force under any circumstances cannot be a viable policy option. Indeed, at the regional level all the BRICS countries have resorted to force at one time or another when other means of persuasion have failed. India’s interventions in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives are evidence of this pragmatism.

India’s stance on interventionism is one topic of a new paper just out from CIC by Nitin Pai of the Takshashila Institution. Nitin focuses on India’s policy towards weak states in its region – including Afghanistan, Nepal and Burma but also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka – and argues that New Delhi faces a “paradox of proximity”. The  fact that India is so close to these weak states means that it has (i) strong reasons to be involved in their affairs but (ii) even stronger reasons to be cautious. This is why India’s interventions in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, decades ago, remain exceptional:

Domestic politics, fear of military overreach and bureaucratic factors moderate boldness and circumscribe policy innovation. They have also forced New Delhi into a pattern of reacting to developments. Other than the peace process with Pakistan, India’s political leaders have shown little interest in stewarding bold departures from extant neighbourhood policy. Changes in New Delhi’s policies have been incremental even in the face of momentous changes in the countries of the region.

So while Sidhu emphasizes India’s “pragmatism”, Nitin highlights its “cautious prudence”.   For those used to U.S. debates between idealism and realism, a contest between pragmatism and prudence may seem rather low-key.  But a measured rise to superpower status may well be more sustainable than a meteoric ascent.

CBeebies on international aid architecture

by | Apr 20, 2011 | Economics and development, Global system

If you have young children, then you will of course be familiar with In the Night Garden, a TV show on CBeebies which goes out each evening just before bedtime.

But what you may not have realised is that the show is in fact a complex and highly sophisticated metaphor for international aid architecture.

Here, then, is a summary of my observations, with input and advice from a range of experts on Twitter. (more…)