Doug Saunders of Canada’s Globe and Mail has an interesting post on whether the economic boom that lasted from the early 1990s to the late 2000s was worth it. He concludes, on the basis of incomes, home ownership rates and household debt in the US, Canada and Europe, that ‘in the countries that kept a lid on consumer and mortgage lending, the economic boom was worth all the hype. Everywhere else, it was like a bad dream.’ By this analysis, only France, Canada and Germany have reaped sustainable rewards.
But what if we take a wider view? In a globalised world, it is not only recessions and financial crises that cross borders, but also goods, money, people and knowledge. As global trade, aid and migration have increased in the past two decades, at least some of the economic benefits of the boom are likely to have had impacts beyond the borders of North America and Europe.
So how are things looking on a global scale? Was the boom worth it for the world as a whole? Well, so far, emphatically yes. Take poverty for example. As David showed on here a few weeks ago, world poverty has plummeted – from over 40% of the population in 1990 to just over 20% today. Or look at life expectancy – another key aspect of quality of life and one which you would expect to improve as economic growth helps people and countries pay for health care and better diets. That too has improved, by a massive five years worldwide since 1990. And in education, increases in which will help countries to maintain in the long-term their advances in other areas, the number of children who are out of school worldwide has shrunk by a third in the past two decades.
Of course, it’s much too early to predict whether all or any of these improvements will survive the current crash (let alone the environmental damage that has gone hand in hand with growth), and it’s difficult to disentangle the effects of the boom from the effects of, say, better governance in poor countries. But it’s also too early to say the boom wasn’t worth it. The world is a much wealthier, healthier and more knowledgeable place today than it was before the boom started, and even if stagnation takes hold and there are no further improvements in the imminent future, many people will still be in a better place than they were 20 years ago. It seems unfashionable to be pleased about anything in today’s gloomy atmosphere, but taking a global perspective is a cause at least for temporary cheer.
