What am I talking about here?
You’ve seen this story in a thousand cop shows. The aged policeman, a week from retirement, takes one last case with an ambitious young partner. They bicker. They learn to work together. They face down a bad guy at dawn. The old guy gets to go home…
Ah-ha, the reader will think, this will segue into an analysis of the Lethal Weapon movies, in which Danny Glover famously played a cop worried about getting old…
Not so. I am, in fact, trying to capture the EU’s dilemma over diplomacy with Iran. Yesterday, the Security Council approved new sanctions on Tehran. The EU supports these, and will add to them. But, whereas the “E3” (Britain, France and Germany) used to lead efforts to constrain Iran at the UN, there are new officers on the beat:
In the short-term, this is primarily a U.S. success. Washington has largely replaced the EU in diplomacy around Iran – a switch made clear when President Obama announced new intelligence on Iranian activities at September’s G20 summit in Pittsburgh.
Other players have been involved too. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have been sending clear signals to Beijing that it should get tough with Iran or risk damaging their bilateral relations – a powerful warning, given China’s reliance on Gulf energy supplies.
Russia, the inveterate rogue cop in this story (the type normally played by Harvey Keitel) has also come good, at least for now. Whether thanks to U.S. engagement or because of concerns over its economy, Moscow has turned against Iran, tipping the scales at the UN.
At times, European leaders have been irritated by their reduced profile on the issue. Last month, The Economist reported that President Sarkozy hopes to use France’s presidency of the G20 in 2011 to reassert a leadership role on Iran – among a small host of priorities.
In reality, the Europeans are now consigned to the Danny Glover role on Iran: backing up the U.S. in diplomacy at the UN rather than playing the starring role. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The E3 should be satisfied that the U.S. has now adopted their strategy, even if matters could turn nasty at short notice. And like Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon, Washington will need back-up when things do bad…
