Megrahi’s release: select your conspiracy theory now

by | Aug 20, 2009 | Conflict and security, UK

As Abdelbaset al-Megrahi makes his way to the airport after his release from prison on compassionate grounds, you have a choice of two conspiracy theories about why he was allowed out.

Option 1: it was all about oil. Interesting fact: while Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa, Libya has the largest reserves.  You might therefore conclude that there’s plenty of exploration / production fun to be had there.  You might also observe that the Libyan Investment Corporation’s partner in this activity is, er, BP (see their annual review, p. 26).  Add in the reports that Peter Mandelson just happened to run into Colonel Gadaffi’s son in (where else) Corfu, and presto! Your conspiracy theory is ready to serve.

Option 2: Richard Ingrams, on the other hand, has an altogether different theory – and it goes like this:

The Justice Minister Jack Straw is old enough to know that we have a long and shameful tradition, where terrorism is concerned, of imprisoning the wrong people. And the notorious Irish cases in the 1970s and 80s wreaked havoc with the reputation of the police, the intelligence services and the judges.

The offence of which Megrahi was – almost certainly wrongly – convicted after a trial lasting six months before three distinguished Scottish judges was far more serious than anything the Guildford Four or the Birmingham Six were accused of doing. Resulting in the deaths of 280 innocent people, it was far and away the most serious act of terrorism in our history. So, what if Megrahi’s appeal succeeded and it was shown that yet again the security forces and the judges had got it wrong – and this at a time when the Government is trying to introduce more and more draconian measures to deal with the supposed threat of terrorism?

Opposition to giving the police yet more powers would inevitably be boosted and the awkward question would be raised – if not Megrahi then who did it? The official hope, now that Megrahi has applied to drop his appeal, is that we can finally draw a line under Lockerbie and move on.

Take your pick…

Denim and the decline of the West

by | Aug 18, 2009 | Economics and development, Off topic

Time to catch up with the Global Market Review of the Denim and Jeanswear Industries – Forecasts to 2006, which we foolishly missed on its publication in May.

The long-term future

* Looking ahead to 2016, the denim jeans market has a rosy future, the report says.

* Dollar growth will be 6.6% between 2012 and 2016, while unit growth will be 7.7%. This is a direct consequence of the shift in the market away from developed countries and towards the rest of the world.

* Even the more pessimistic long-term scenario sees North American consumption flat at 35%, a 5% rise in the jeans market value in Japan and South Korea, and a dramatic 23% jump in the US dollar value of the jeans market in the rest of the world.

* The only blip is a 2% drop in Europe’s share of world consumption to 35%.

There goes the West…

Thought US healthcare opposition was bad? Just wait for the climate bill

by | Aug 17, 2009 | Climate and resource scarcity, Influence and networks

Thought the populist right wing opposition to healthcare reform was bad? Just wait til you see what’s in store on climate change…

A leaked memo sent by an oil industry group reveals a plan to create astroturf rallies at which industry employees posing as “citizens” will urge Congress to oppose climate change legislation. The memo — sent by the American Petroleum Institute and obtained by Greenpeace, which sent it to reporters — urges oil companies to recruit their employees for events that will “put a human face on the impacts of unsound energy policy,” and will urge senators to “avoid the mistakes embodied in the House climate bill.”

API [says] that the campaign is being funded by a coalition of corporate and conservative groups that includes the anti-health-care-reform group 60 Plus, FreedomWorks, and Grover Norquist’s Americans For Tax Reform.

That’s from TPM, who also have a copy of the full text of the API memo. Be in no doubt as to the potential impact of this kind of lobbying: news is just breaking in the US that the White House is “ready to abandon the idea of giving Americans the option of government-run insurance as part of a new health care system”.

The “grassroots” opposition to healthcare reform in the US is a fascinating case study which climate nerds should study obsessively – noting not only that (a) battles of this kind are not won with facts, but also that (b) it’s not simply a case of corporate astroturf lobbying.

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