Raymond Chandler got it wrong:
In fact, an analysis by The New York Times of rainfall and homicides for the last six years shows that when it rains substantially in the summertime, there are fewer homicides.
When there was no precipitation, there was an average of 17 homicides every 10 days. But when there was an inch or more of rain, the average dropped to 14.
That does not surprise Vernon J. Geberth a former Bronx homicide squad commanding officer. He said that when there was a downpour, the police would sometimes joke, “The best cop in the world is on duty tonight.”
The gap is even wider when looking just at Saturdays in the summer. Those are the days that typically post the highest number of homicides in a year. When there was no rain, the average number of homicides for every 10 Saturdays in summer jumped to 24. For every 10 Saturdays doused with at least an inch of rain, the average number was 18.
These numbers may add up to something of a bright spot for a city that officially entered summer with the second wettest June on record, according to meteorologists at Pennsylvania State University. With a little more than 200 homicides so far this year, the city is on pace for a low not seen since the early 1960s. The first few days of July promise more of the same damp weather, with a chance of rain every day.
