by Daniel Korski | Aug 18, 2008 | Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia, North America
Jules did a piece about an ordinary Russian’s reaction to the Russo-Georgian War. To give some balance, here are the views of an ordinary American and friend who got trapped in Tblisi.
We finally got back to the US last night, after a harrowing 11 days. Among other things, we got stuck in a column of retreating Georgian tanks in Gori 30 minutes before a major Russian air strike on the column and 2 hours before Russian ground forces occupied the city and closed the highway. Kouchner had been in the town earlier that day and we thought the Russians would hold off at least until the next day.
It’s a bad situation–and much bigger than Georgia. The EU and the US need to speak with a united voice. I’m glad Merkel went to Tbilisi and finally spoke up on Russian aggression. Her first comments from Germany were fantastically bad–and exactly what Russia is counting on.
After unsuccessfully trying to get our family and friends across the border to Azerbaijan, we were guests at the ‘solidarity’ rally with Yushchenko and the presidents of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
A lot was done badly in US-Georgian relations and in Georgian responses to retaliation, but none of that needs to be discussed under the barrel of a Russian gun. We need to find a way to force them to honor the cease fire or start to impose costs.
I think there is still a 50% chance they intend to occupy the whole country. I also think there is little possibility Georgia is the end of it.
by David Steven | Aug 18, 2008 | Off topic
Earlier today, I demonstrated that – official medal table notwithstanding – the US is winning the Olympics. But it seems I spoke too soon. It turns out that the European Union is winning, and pretty handsomely:
Apologies for any confusion caused – and thanks to Euro-Informationen for the table.
by Richard Gowan | Aug 18, 2008 | Influence and networks, Off topic
Daniel noted a few days ago that, while the EU has ramped up aid to Georgia, U.S. efforts have got much more publicity. But there are others in the aid game:
Iran’s first convoy of relief supplies for the displaced people of the Georgian city of Gori was delivered to the city’s officials on Monday. Iran’s Embassy in Tbilisi announced that the Islamic Republic’s humanitarian supplies including canned food, flour, cooking oil, sugar, tea leaves, and biscuits, was delivered to a camp of thousands of the victims of the recent conflict in the city of Gori.
Who knew? Press TV, Iran’s faux CNN, missed the story. As would have I, had the BBC not inspired me to hunt through Iranian websites to find this press release.
The Music Office of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance denied the news pertaining live concert of Irish singer Chris de Burgh in Tehran. According to the report, no official request in this regard has been submitted to Music Office yet, adding that no permit has been issued. The Music Office also urged the mass media to make sure of the authenticity of any report before releasing it. Chris de Burgh is a world-famous musician and singer who was selected as a UN Ambassador to promote food campaign initiatives against malnutrition.
An inauthentic Chris de Burgh concert in Iran should not, however, be ruled out. At least one impressionist has plans for a “new world order”:
[Youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu6uMDfBN88]
UPDATE: check out this wonderful footage of Chris in Iran in May.
by Daniel Korski | Aug 18, 2008 | Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, South Asia
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is resigning, thus opening a new chapter in this country’s history as the governing parties, PPP and PML-N, are bound to go at each other’s jugulars once the celebrations end.
But there is little time for festivities. The government has not been able to assume control over the military and intelligence apparatus or engage an increasingly capable alliance of Pakistani militant groups and al Qaeda, which looks set to control much of western Pakistan. Pakistan’s turmoil has pinched the country’s economy, and stoked inflation. In addition, relations with India have taken a turn for the worse.
The governing parties should be helped to re-draft the constitution to give way to a new, ceremonial President (like in India). But what is really needed is a new coalition agreement, which commits the government to deal with the economic meltdown, intelligence reforms, the emergence of a Pakistani Taliban and Pakistan-India links.
To bring the military on board to such an agenda, a revision is needed of US military assistance with the implicit promise of more and better-targeted assistance as a reward for a deal. A new U.S administration should use the threat of a suspension of military assistance if the Pakistani military balks at the necessary changes. Before the “nuclear option” of a legislative ban on assistance – which Barack Obama has supported in the past – a new administration could direct an audit of U.S military assistance.
While Europe can only play a limited role in moving the Pakistani military, it can play much bigger part in dealing with the Pakistani government. Over on the Spectator’s website, I offer suggestions for what shape this can take and the leverage the West has:
As a carrot for a new deal – which should include a balanced counter-insurgency strategy, regional peace initiatives and intelligence reforms – the Prime Minister could offer to host high-profile donor’s conference, which could lay the foundation for a UN-led assistance programme to be overseen by an assistance envoy. Perhaps this could be a job for Paddy Ashdown, who was lined up for the UN job in Afghanistan until Afghan President Hamid Karzai changed his mind.
No peace in Pakistan is possible without a regional peace process and Gordon Brown should persuade George W. Bush to appoint a Presidential Envoy – a regional version of Zalmay Khalilzad’s previous Afghan role – and for the EU to do the same. These two “tandem envoys” could then begin the long trek towards regional stability, helping to prepare the ground for a new strategy from a new U.S administration.
However much it spends, the U.S will get little for its aid dollars given its reputation in the region. Therefore, any international, UN-led assistance programme needs to be kicked-off by the Europeans.
by David Steven | Aug 18, 2008 | Off topic
Perhaps you thought the Chinese were leading the Olympics medal table – maybe using erroneous information supplied by the official Olympics website, and copied slavishly by major media outlets such as the BBC:
However within the US it’s a different story, with Team America storming towards another Olympics victory:
How come the difference? The official table ranks countries by gold medals won (silver and bronzes are used for ties). The US version, in contrast, ranks by total medals – ensuring the greatest nation on God’s earth takes its proper position ahead of the rest of us.
[Question: Would it be churlish of me to point out that this is an innovation? That back in 2004, when the US won most golds, it used the same table as the rest of the world? Answer: Yes. Most definitely.]
