The idea that EU personnel should help keep the peace in Georgia – noted here yesterday but in the air since last week – is gaining traction. Today, the European Council said that the EU would boost OSCE observers there, but that just means more Euros under the OSCE’s flag. But the Council left open the possibility of a mission under its own banner, and that’s reportedly being discussed in private.
Russia has indicated that it is open to a greater “international aspect”. One potential problem: the Russians may also insist that EU monitors operate within the framework of, or in very close coordination with, the existing (Russian-led) CIS “peacekeeping force” in South Ossetia. That could mean EU-badged troops taking orders from Russian officers, or at least having to defer to them.
That may be the price to pay to avoid more bloodshed (the European Council says it’ll support “every effort” and while it stipulates the UN and OSCE, that could mean the CIS too). And the EU would demand that the force in South Ossetia come under a UN mandate – previously, it’s relied on an agreement between Georgia and Moscow that the Georgians have voided by quitting the CIS.
But a Russian-EU hook-up will not impress those Georgians who had hoped that the EU might come to their aid during the war – experience in Kosovo and elsewhere indicates that it won’t be long before an angry war vet decides to take personal revenge. And it will be greeted with hoots from the Washington neocons: is this the marvellous European Security and Defence Policy? Are some EU members more comfortable with Russian command than with the U.S. in Afghanistan?
How can the EU limit the damage to its image? In operational terms, the answer must be to maximize the autonomy of its contingent as much as possible (in recent days, I’ve kicked ideas to and fro with Nicu Popescu of ECFR on this, and he’s reproduced part of the exchange on his blog). But the key is to ensure that the EU is also seen to be delivering humanitarian and reconstruction aid, and boosting Georgian democracy every way it knows. But the U.S. is ahead in that game – and this is Korski’s turf, so I challenge him to put forward a plan…
