One of the interesting questions in the Georgia – Ossetia – Russia conflict is who is calling the shots.
On the Ossetian and Russian side, is Dmitry Medvedev, the young president who many think is the puppet of Putin, calling the shots? It’s interesting to contrast the rhetoric of Putin and Medvedev in the last few days. Medvedev has been quoted as saying: ‘”Under the Constitution and the Federal law … I must protect the life and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are”.
That’s a Westernized lawyer speaking, almost as if apologizing to the West. ‘Look, I don’t really want to send in the tanks, but you understand, I must, it’s in the constitution.’
I wonder if Medvedev had any say on the movement of Russian armed forces at all. I think Putin would have called the shots on this one. He’s seemed much more up for a confrontation in his comments, saying ‘Of course there will be consequences’ when Georgia invaded Ossetia.
But Putin was quoted yesterday as saying: “There are lots of volunteers being gathered in the region, and it’s very hard to withhold them from taking part. A real war is going on.” This sounds a bit like Lebanon talking about Hezbollah, or the PLO talking about Hamas. ‘We’d like to call a ceasefire, but you know, these volunteers, it’s out of our hands.’
Meanwhile, who’s in charge in Georgia? Mikhail Saakashvili’s chief press spokesman in Tblisi is an American government official. The city is crawling with CIA spooks. You can’t get into a lift in the Radisson without seeing some yank with a crew-cut and shiny black shoes. Did the Georgians tell the Americans what they planned to do? Did the Americans agree? Or are they being pulled into a stand-off with Russia against their will?
This is the weird thing with proxy wars, it’s hard to define who is in control of what. But be assured that Russia will see America’s hand behind Georgia’s actions, even if Saakashvili has been operating more autonomously. This is not just a stand-off between Georgia and Ossetia. It’s a stand-off between Russia and the US, over the borders of NATO.
