The Russian and Chinese veto of UNSC sanctions against Zimbabwe may in hindsight have been predicable, even inevitable, but on day of the vote they came as a clear surprise to many, not least British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who only days earlier told the House the tougher sanctions were in the bag.
Leaving aside whether you believe sanctions are a good idea – I certainly do – what happened? Had Russian President Dmitri Medvedev not signed up to sanctions only days before at the G8 Summit in Japan? Did the Prime Minister simply not take “Njet” for an answer? Bit by bit, the run-up to the vote is emerging.
It now seems the issue was driven not by No. 10, but from the 7th floor of the U.S State Department, where Jendayi Frazer, U.S Assistant Secretary of State, sits. Even though no U.S interests are at stake, Ms Frazer, an academic colleague of Condi Rice’s from her Stanford days, has focused intently on Zimbabwe, apparently raising the issue whenever she meets African leaders.
Ms. Frazer – who is known to abhor her British opposite number Lord Malloch Brown from his UN days – apparently was in the driving seat on Zimbabwe policy, after having waited in vain for a UK lead. With the US Ambassador to the UN, Zal Khalizaid, she apparently pushed hard for a tough resolution. Better to make a stand, the argument went.
But after the G8 meeting, British diplomats apparently thought that the Russians would balk and became nervous. In fairness, Brown – who had been micro-managing the issue – thought he’d gotten Medvedev on board. But either little thought was given to whether the Russian president could in fact deliver – especially after the British Prime Minister harangued him at his first summit – or the issue was not deemed important enough to merit a Russian rejection.
To be on the safe side, however, the Foreign Office apparently asked Bush to call Medvedev and Rice to raise the issue with her Russian counterpart. None of this happened and things began to fall apart. The Chinese, who diplomats believe would probably have abstained if the Russians had not decided to veto, moved to veto as well.
By then the Prime Minister had already sounded confident in his post-G8 address to the House during PMQs. As a last-ditch effort, diplomats considered tabling a weaker resolution, giving South Africa more time to find a solution and thus putting the onus back on Tabo Mbeki and, ultimately, Robert Mugabe. But the U.S – who chaired the UN Security Council – decided to go for broke, tabled the old text and the rest, as they say, is history.
In the aftermath of the no-vote, the U.S government has been quick to point out that the Russian veto shows Russian cannot be seen as a reliable partner. Russian officials have reacted angrily at this, saying Medvedev never promised support for U.N. sanctions.
But what does the episode say about U.S and UK foreign policy? That even on an issue of such totemic importance to Britain – and where the Prime Minster has taken a personal interest – the U.S remains in the lead, yet unable or unwilling to do the necessary due diligence to ensure more than declaratory success.
Bush, Obama and McCain have in the last few days all talked about Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In my view all three shirk the need for 1) a new political settlement in Afghanistan, including through negotiations with “pragmatic” Taliban elements, 2) a new trans-Atlantic push on Pakistan and the region (and not only a CT-focused approach), and 3) the need to invest in the Afghan National Police.
Bodyguards for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo surely win the prize for best secret gadget: The unbreakable fighting umbrella.
And customers are clearly satisfied:
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West Africa’s drug problem is spreading beyond the borders of Guinea-Bissau, which I wrote about a few months back. The UN has warned that her nextdoor neighbour, Guinea, is vulnerable too, although in last month’s mutiny by soldiers all the records of the country’s counter-narcotics unit were, rather suspiciously, destroyed. And in Guinea’s nextdoor neighbour, Sierra Leone, police have just arrested eight “white people with queer accents” who were attempting to smuggle 600 kilos of cocaine into Lungi airport in a plane disguised with a Red Cross logo. Sierra Leone’s clued up police spokesman has worked out from their accents that they might be South Americans. Not surprisingly in the light of the destroyed narcotics records in Guinea, a number of police and airport staff were also arrested, including the chief of airport police and the airport manager. The haul was worth 33 million Euros, and it wouldn’t take a very large share of that to persuade a few poor Sierra Leoneans to pull some strings and smooth your path into the country.
Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone are all fragile states which, like tottering companies, are vulnerable either to complete collapse or to takeover. Guinea-Bissau is in the process of being taken over by the drug cartels – the trouble is, unlike in business where being bought up can sometimes calm the waters, in the world of the resource curse takeover and complete collapse often go hand in hand.
I’m back in Pakistan where the economic picture continues to worsen, as inflation hits 21.53%.
Delve into the detail and you can see the impact of ordinary people. Food prices have risen 32% over the past year, fuel by 11% (despite government subsidies), transport by 25% and health care by 14%. Another petrol and diesel price rise is on the cards.
The new government, meanwhile, is borrowing heavily to maintain subsidies and invest in public services. In the short term, this may dampen down unrest, but it adds to inflationary pressures, and probably merely delays the inevitable economic crunch.
A further problem is the failure of food supply to expand in response to rising prices. According to Mahmood Hasan Khan, food productivity has been stagnant for a decade, with water one of many serious constraints.
Writing in the Daily Times, Rasul Bakhsh Rais sums up the prevailing mood:
The hope that the present elected leadership of the dominant party can address the many challenges facing the country is fast dissipating. There are no alternatives other than chaos, confrontation and even more chaos.
