by Charlie Edwards | Jun 17, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security
This is the University of Maryland’s scale model of New Orleans where they are in the process of recreating Katrina’s floodwaters.
After the hurricane, academics and government departments looked at their sophisticated mathematical models for predicting damage from big Gulf Coast storms and found that the models they had been using were incomplete, out of date or just plain wrong.
While the levees have long since been fixed and upgraded, the risk assessment -based on a mind-boggling 2 million equations – has only now been completed. Gathering the data for the levee upgrade and the risk maps took three years of back-breaking, mind-numbing effort by hundreds of team members using a surprising mix of high technology, old-fashioned detective work, trick psychology and, when all else failed, intuition. The results have revolutionized authorities’ understanding of Gulf Coast hurricanes and. the US Army Corps have published Google maps on their website in an effort to show Gulf Coast residents what kind of danger they will face from hurricanes in the future. You can see them here, and here.
by Alex Evans | Jun 16, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system
We are now officially in Feedback Loop Territory. Earlier today, oil hit another all time record: this time $140 a barrel. Gordon says it’s “the most worrying situation in the world”.
But here’s the interesting part. Why the latest jump? In essence, because of more bad economic news from the US. This week, it was worse-than-expected manufacturing data; last time, it was the worst unemployment figures in a quarter century. Either way, the net effect each time has been the same: to send the dollar lower still on foreign exchange markets.
And, because oil is priced in dollars, each time the greenback falls, it takes more of them to purchase a barrel of oil. And each time a barrel of oil goes up, the key input for the US economy gets more expensive, and… oh, you get the picture. Pretty grim to watch.
by Daniel Korski | Jun 16, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
As European foreign ministers settle down to what must be one of their most uncomfortable meetings this year, my colleague Ulrike Guerot and I try to remind people why the Lisbon Treaty was proposed in the first place. No, not an evil scheme to vanquish long-held British liberties. That role, if you believe the critics , is Gordon Brown’s . But rather, they did it to help deal with Europe’s decline.
If uncorrected, what does this mean in the long-term: a greater diffusion of power and decreased support for a rules-based multilateral system and international norms, such as human rights, at a time when the world is moving to a no-polar set-up.
In the article, we suggest two options are available: a minimalist and a maximalist one.
Minimally, European leaders should think about ways of improving the Union’s foreign policy instruments. Many of the changes could probably be created without a Treaty and through Council and Commission decisions.
But a more maximalist option would be to push ahead with a multi-speed Europe. Multi-speed not in the sense of fast/middle/slow; rather, multi-speed in the sense of overlapping ellipses of cooperation. This is not the same as consigning Europe to fragments – because the key ellipses (e.g. euro, Schengen) expand over time until they come to cover all European countries.
by Richard Gowan | Jun 16, 2008 | Africa, Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia, Global system
On Saturday, just after Ireland tipped the EU into crisis by rejecting the Lisbon Treaty, Irish forces serving with the EU in Chad found themselves caught in a fire-fight between rebels and government forces. Luckily they didn’t take casualties. It’s not hard to imagine the headlines if they had: “Irish Soldiers Die For EU As Civilians Reject It” packs a punch (regular readers will know that I’ve spent a lot of time imagining such a scenario). Given that one issue in the Lisbon referendum campaign was Ireland’s traditional neutralism, which some voters fear under threat from the EU, the losses would have been more resonant still.
But, in contrast to the very deliberate murder of a UN peacekeeper in Darfur last month, this shoot-out was all a silly mistake. Today’s Irish Times quotes rebel spokesmen getting emotional about how fond they are of the EU force (Eufor):
The rebels, who claim to be advancing on the Chadian capital N’Djamena for their second offensive against President Idriss Deby in six months, said the EU force, known as Eufor, had demonstrated its neutrality since deploying to eastern Chad. “We congratulate Eufor soldiers for their courageous attitude and neutrality. Eufor has showed its strict neutrality in this conflict and therefore we have no problem with them,” rebel spokesman Abderaman Koulamallah said. “If Eufor continues to be neutral, they will have no problem from us.”
“Eufor was definitely not the intended target of the shots. These were perhaps loose shots. We are very happy with the stance [Eufor] took yesterday, because it took a more defensive stance not an offensive one. The shooting which took place does not in any away compromise the relations between us, which are relations of mutual respect.”
Whereupon Mr. Koulamallah knocked back a pint of Beamish, gave a rousing rendition of the opening verses of “Danny Boy” and inquired whether it might be possible for the Corrs to perform at the projected victory march through N’Djamena later this month… well, not quite, but you get my drift.
There are two ways of interpreting all this: (i) Eufor has achieved some credibility as a humanitarian mission, rather than a front for French interests in Chad; or (ii) the rebels are now confident that the EU troops are impotent. While I’m relieved that no Irish troops died, this feels eerily like those occasions in the 1990s when Bosnian Serb commanders pledged their undying affection for UNPROFOR… as Daniel and I pointed out when the Chad mission began, it’s not a good precedent.
by Alex Evans | Jun 16, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity
Looks like lots of people (including me) may have spoken too soon in hoping for a near term easing of food prices. Notwithstanding recent causes for good cheer on wheat and rice, the extreme weather that the US mid-west has been experiencing over the last week or so spells devastation for the corn and soya crops. Corn’s now at $7 a bushel – up from $4 a year ago – and many (“if not all” – Citigroup) small and medium sized ethanol distilleries are likely to have to shut down. The NYT paints a picture of how bad:
Dave Timmerman’s small farm has been flooded four times in the past month by the Wildcat Creek, a tributary of the Cedar River which overflowed its banks at a record 31 feet last week, causing catastrophic damage in nearby Cedar Rapids and other eastern Iowa towns and farmsteads.
“In the lean years, we had beautiful crops but they weren’t worth much,” Mr. Timmerman said, surveying his farm, which his family has tended since his great-great-grandfather. “Now, with commodity prices sky high, mother nature is throwing us all these curve balls. I’m 42 years old and these are by far the poorest crops I’ve ever seen.” And he added, “It’s going downhill by the day.”
All of this will mean a sharp fall in production of corn-based ethanol, and the potential for political intervention. But what form – and with what long term effects? One to watch over the next week or two…
