Back in Belgrade

by | Jun 21, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia

I’m back in Belgrade after seven years. Last time I was here, Milosevic had recently been overthrown and sent to the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague; Vojislav Kostunica had been elected President and the future looked bright.

Today, Kostunica is the international community’s bete noir, Milosevic is dead but his party, the Socialists, are likely to enter into a coalition government with the EU’s favourite, President Boris Tadic. The country seems locked in a struggle with the EU over Kosovo’s fate. And judging from my unscientific, coffee-fuelled poll of people I have met today, things are a lot worse now than they were seven years ago.

In Belgrade, newly-built, mirrored office buildings vie for space with clapped-out, Yugoslav houses. Down the main drag, dolled-up, silicone-enhanced peroxide blondes leap over dirty beggars. The sun shines, and the city’s second sushi bar – this one run by a Swede – tempts punters with the symbol of Western style – posh Eastern food. 

But Belgrade seems like an old lady; once beautiful and coveted, she’s now bitter and tired. Occasionally, she reveals her former glory – in a beautiful, Austro-Hungarian building, a majestic street, a concert in the park – but her time seems over. And after only one day of being here, I’m not sure the Serbs are ready yet to give her a new lease of life.

Hazardscape

by | Jun 21, 2008 | Conflict and security, Off topic

A fantastically useful map created by RSOE EDIS, a nonprofit emergency services organization based in Budapest:

The live map or hazardscape is regularly updated from hundreds of sources- like the WHO, US Geological Survey as well as from emergency services (mainly, it has to be said, in developing countries) who report on live operations from around the world. The map is a useful reminder of the number of risks that rarely make the news; an epidemic hazard in Russia, forest fires in Greece, to flash floods in China and earthquakes in Mexico.

Respecting the Irish ‘no’

by | Jun 21, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia

Robert Shrimsley offers this take on attitudes in Brussels towards the Irish ‘no’ vote (hat-tip: Jim Pickard):

The great figures of Europe met in the wake of the Irish No vote to agree on a way forward.

About one thing they were absolutely clear. “We must respect the Irish vote,” they agreed. “It would be a terrible sign of European arrogance to suggest we could just sweep aside a democratic vote of a member state.”

So they all agreed to go out and tell the Irish how much they respected their vote. And they agreed there must be no bullying; no warning the Irish to get their ungrateful Fenian butts into line or go it alone in miserable and obscure isolation.

In fact, they were so clear on this point that they at once agreed to go out and start emphasising it in public. Several gave statements noting that there was pressure from some quarters for Ireland to be left behind but adding that the people of Ireland should not be frightened or feel disrespected because they were sure it would not come to this. And so, just to offer further reassurance, they would put up posters in Ireland making clear that the Irish had better vote Yes PDQ or get their miserable Fenian butts out of the EU.

But maybe even this is not enough, said one. Perhaps we ought to get over to Ireland and give TV interviews stressing that under no circumstances will there be any miserable Fenian butt-kicking.

While they were there, they would take the chance to add that so deep was their respect for the Irish No that Ireland could have as long as it liked to change its mind. Across the continent European leaders insisted there would be no pressure. “If the deadline slips by a few months, so be it,” said one, adding that to take any other view would be to “disrespect the Irish No”.

But surely, they argued, the best way to demonstrate our respect to the Irish people is to show how we can move Europe forward. We need to change the agenda, said another.

“The people have spoken,” they said. And the message was that they wanted to get away from all this talk of treaties and constitutions and referendums that had caused the Irish reaction that had to be respected.

“We have to move the agenda on,” they said. We need to stop bothering the people of the EU with these referendums they do not understand.

When you analyse this, they said, what the Irish – who had to be respected – were telling them was that this was far too complex a matter and they want us to drive this through without bothering them. Once you put it that way it was clear their views had to be respected.

More importantly they had to heed the message that they were being told – to stop fussing about internal stuff and start talking about things that really mattered to the people, like jobs and the economy. That meant they needed to drive through those changes as fast as possible so they could get on to the important matters.

So they got to work at once, working out how to secure most of the rejected changes without bothering the Irish again – out of respect for their democratically expressed wishes. After all, they noted, deep down the Irish are good Europeans. They know a convoy cannot move at the pace of its slowest member – unless, of course, that slowest member is France.

Texan political advertising at its best 2: 1960s nostalgia edition

by | Jun 20, 2008 | Conflict and security, Influence and networks, North America, Off topic

Yesterday, I offered up Texan senator John Cornyn’s macho cowboy re-election video as “Texan political advertising at its best”.  But the enjoyably off-beat William Butler Yeast blog (which has a commendable “What I’ve Been Drinking” sidebar which I hope we’ll be imitating soon*) points out that the creator of the single most powerful (and nastiest) advert for any Texan politician ever died last weekend. 

The ad man was Tony Schwartz.  The Texan was Lyndon Baines Johnson.  The target was Barry Goldwater, LBJ’s opponent in the 1964 presidential election and feared by some as too likely to, er, go nuclear.  The result was the “Daisy Ad”.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63h_v6uf0Ao&feature=related]

* As you ask, it’s a gin and tonic for me right now.  Though I’m right out of lime.

Aircon and the rise in crime in Jamaica

by | Jun 20, 2008 | Influence and networks, Off topic

Crime in Jamaica has always been pretty bad. The island of 2.7m people has one of the highest murder rates in the world and the last decade has seen a 10% increase in homicide. The reasons include deteriorating economic conditions and small town gangs evolving into powerful organised criminal networks. But researchers looking more closely into just why crime has got so bad have stumbled on something fascinating.

Ten years ago, researchers would comb the streets for information, talking with local residents and listening to their stories. These conversations would invariably take place on either the steps leading up to the front door or on the verandas overlooking the street. But when researchers moved from street to street in the city heat this time around, they noticed that the streets were empty. Were people hiding because of crime? Researchers began knocking on the doors of houses to find out. Once they had explained who they were through the shutters, the researchers were allowed in – and were immediately hit by a wave of cold air.

The reason behind the disappearing citizens hit the researchers – literally. As Jamaicans had begun purchasing cheap air conditioning units so the tradition of sitting out on the stairs and verandas started to die. And as the residents left, the criminals moved in – taking over streets in a bid to expand their turf. Researchers found that the mere presence of people sitting outside their houses had acted as a deterrent to crime by building social capital among local residents and in doing so bringing the community closer together. Buying aircon units, it seems, set off a unique chain reaction.