The Pro-European Serb President, Boris Tadic announced yesterday that talks to form a governing coalition with the Socialist Party would begin.
Several weeks after its election, Serbia’s still has no government. The parliamentary elections in early May saw moderate pro-European parties win a razor-thin majority in Serbia’s parliament. But for weeks it looked as if the current Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, would cobble together an anti-EU, nationalist coalition with the Radical party.
With yesterday’s announcement, it looks as if a coalition by President Tadic’s party (DS) and the late Slobodan Milosevic’s party, the Socialists (SP), will be formed in a matter of days. Recent weeks have witnessed behind-the-scenes horse-trading about government jobs with the Socialists and other minority parties. The Socialists have been demanding control of key ministries like the Ministry of Interior, which is one of the most powerful portfolios in the Serbian government.
In turn, prime ministerial candidates all come from the President’s party with Mirko Cvetkovi?, the current Finance Minister, high on the list. All eyes will also be on United Serbia (JS) leader Dragan Markovi? Palma, the mayor of Jagodina, who famously wanted to invite Mozart and Bethoven to perform in his city. A Richard Armitage-look-a-like, Dragan Palma is expected to become a government minister.
What happens in Serbia matters. The Balkans are still fragile and Belgrade can play an important role both for good and for bad. A new government is likely to continue a hard-line stance on Kosovo, but will improve Serbia’s relationship with the EU. The Stabilistation and Association Agreement – the first real step towards EU integration – is likely to be ratified by the new parliament and after a two year hiatus the legislature may actually begin passing much-needed laws.
But how long the stability will last nobody knows. The government’s majority will be wafer-thin and on many issues the two coalition partners – DS and the Socialists –sport not only different policies, but different worldviews. Will they have the appetite to arrest Ratko Mladic – one of the world’s leading war criminals – tackle the country’s deep-seated corruption, and counter the isolationist, anti-Western sentiment most Serbs – even young people – now hold?
Kosovo will not go away either and the EU will continue to press for its rule-of-law mission, EULEX, to be allowed into the Serb-dominated northern part of the newly-independent country. Most Serbs know in their hearts of hearts that Kosovo is and will remain independent. But they still hope the northern part, where most Serbs live, can join Serbia. Either way, it is taboo in Serbian politics to admit that Kosovo is no longer part of Serbia proper whatever the Belgrade government says or does.
Pro-European government made up of the President’s party and the Socialists is an good thing. But many challenges still remain for a country that could be the region’s linchpin.
