by Alex Evans | Mar 7, 2008 | North America
As you pity Samantha Power for having to resign for calling Hillary a ‘monster’, the story of the week’s other Obama leak is still developing. As readers will recall, that leak was to do with a meeting last month between Austan Goolsbee, Obama’s senior economic adviser, and officials at the Canadian consulate in Chicago. As the FT reported earlier this week,
In a summary of the meeting, a Canadian diplomat wrote that Mr Goolsbee “acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign … He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans,” said the memo, which was obtained by the Associated Press …
The Canadian embassy in Washington expressed regret for how the meeting had been interpreted. “There was no intention to convey, in any way, that Senator Obama and his campaign team were taking a different position in public from views expressed in private,” it said.
At the time, my reaction was simply: how embarrassing for the Canadian embassy. But there’s a twist. Since then, media coverage has reported that the leak actually came from Ian Brodie – chief of staff to the [highly conservative] Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper – after ABC News identified him as the source of briefing to reporters. As Jeet Heer remarks on Comment is Free,
In Canada, the whole story is emerging as a major political scandal. This sort of interference into another country’s elections is not just a huge diplomatic faux pas, but also a deep affront to democratic norms.
(more…)
by Alex Evans | Mar 7, 2008 | Economics and development
Dani Rodrik is wondering whether we might be seeing a new paradigm in development economics:
Until very recently, if you spent anytime thinking about development policy, the chances are that you fell into one of three groups. One group believes the problem with developing countries is lack of resources. So the solution is a vast increase in foreign aid. A second group believes the real problem if lack of incentives. So the solution is more and better markets. The third group thinks the problem is lousy governments, so the answer lies with improved governance. I leave it to the reader to identify these positions with their most distinguished (or at least most vocal) representatives…
But there is something new afoot. Increasingly, some people are saying the right way to approach development policy is to start with the view that we actually don’t know where the problems lie, to acknowledge that the key problems may differ from setting to setting, and to adopt an explicitly experimental attitude to policy selection and formulation so that you can learn about the environment in which you operate.
In this approach, monitoring and evaluation are key, as you want to pull back from mistakes and improve policies over time. Indeed, you build the monitoring into the policy process itself so that learning becomes part and parcel of it–rather than something you leave to your researchers or economists. This way of thinking about development policy is radically different from the three schools I summarized above, as it admits much greater diversity and heterodoxy. It is humble about the extent of our knowledge but optimistic about our ability to learn.
by Alex Evans | Mar 7, 2008 | Global system
Lots of worries about a very bumpy day ahead on the US markets. Nouriel Roubini reckons that the US is already on steps 10-12 of his 12-step financial meltdown sequence. As the FT’s Gillian Tett puts it,
The western financial system is caught in a trap. On the one hand, there is an urgent need for clearing prices to be established for impaired assets to restore confidence; on the other hand, if this is done in a mark-to-market world, there is a risk that some banks will run out of capital. Policymakers are in the unenviable position of knowing almost any step they take risks denting sentiment further.
Meanwhile, FT investment editor John Authers’s broadcast on FT.com yesterday is not exactly cheery either:
Welcome from New York, where a lot of people are very scared … On face value, what the markets are telling us is that the US is headed for absolute disaster.
Commodities are continuing to go bananas as the dollar weaken. While the greenback is at a record low against the euro, crude is close to $106 a barrel (an all time high, needless to say), and gold still sticking near its record high of $991.90 a troy ounce. But the thing to watch this morning is the US monthly employment data, due in about one hour’s time (1.30pm GMT); Roubini reckons it will contain some very unpleasant surprises…
Update: yep, it’s a lot worse than expected: the biggest monthly decline in jobs for almost five years (63,000 non-agriculural jobs lost last month, compared to market expectations of a rise of between 25,000 and 40,000). Now let’s see how that goes down on an already very jittery stock market – which opens in NY in about half an hour.
by Alex Evans | Mar 7, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, East Asia and Pacific, Global system
Meanwhile, on the Time magazine blog, Simon Elegant has been sitting in on Wen Jiabao’s ‘work report’ to delegates at the National People’s Congress.
It took two and half hours but there was no question then and in subsequent comments by senior officials that inflation is very much on their minds. Wen said their target for the year is 4.8 per cent, which seems optimistic given that its currently running at 7.1 per cent (January) and rising. With inflation, as with everything else, perception is just as important as reality. And that’s where the problems lies for Beijing. With most of the rise coming from food (80 plus per cent according to the government) these jumps really hit hard.
His colleague Jodie Xu, meanwhile, has been seeing the impacts up close in Beijing’s food market:
Wang Litian, a 67 year old retired worker from Beijing Bus Factory, recently faced an impossible choice: cut her medical expenses by not taking painkillers or cut down on her food spending. Wang lives with her husband, son and daughter-in-law and a granddaughter The family’s income is mostly spent on food and medicine. But with the food prices continuing to soar, they now have a choice between food or medicine. “Last year, our food expense was a little over one thousand yuan a month. It has risen to over two thousand now,” Wang says, waving her hands in agitation. “My salary has just been increased by 200 yuan a month, but the food prices rise much faster.”
Wang isn’t alone in suffering from a recent bout of inflation that hit the food sector hardest. A retired factory director who gives his name only as Old Ma grumbles about the price of lamb. “Our quality of life is steadily declining. Last year, my family could afford to have meat twice a week. Now we only eat meat once every month.” Ma, says his family of seven budget 1,500 yuan a month for food. But now that means most meals consist of cabbage and potatoes. To get cheaper prices, Old Ma delays his daily visit to the food market until four o’clock in the afternoon. “The later I go, the cheaper the price is. I exchanged the quality for the quantity. If the price doesn’t stop going up, it won’t be long before people start to protest.”
As Simon Elegant recalls, it’s not hard to see why the CCP are so worried about inflation: it was one of the main drivers of protests at Tiananmen nearly 20 years ago…
by Alex Evans | Mar 7, 2008 | Conflict and security, Influence and networks
The Cult of the Dead Cow, a noted hacker group, has just conducted some interesting research on government computer network security vulnerabilities (hat-tip: John Robb). CDC’s headline conclusion:
(1) Web site security on government and military web servers is stronger in China than in the west.
And also – er:
(2) Adult content is out of control with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) middle-management types.
Here’s the full story. Fortunately, as CDC explain, they have a clear and responsible policy on information privacy:
WHY CULT OF THE DEAD COW WILL NOT PUBLISH WESTERN SECURITY HOLES We ain’t stupid. We have shared our findings with some security experts, selected journalists and NGOs, and they’ve been corroborated. But that’s it. We have zero interest or motivation in providing a roadmap for bored teenagers, criminals, or any government agencies.
WHY CULT OF THE DEAD COW WILL PUBLISH CHINESE GOVERNMENT DATA We couldn’t care less about these assholes. Any country that props up dictators and practices genocide doesn’t catch a break from us. China should be grateful that we just found this bone-polishing material.
Eat your heart out, Stephen Spielberg.
