by Richard Gowan | Feb 22, 2008 | Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia
Our chum Daniel Korski has been good enough to cite my recent Dashboard post on Kosovo in a new article on the Guardian website. It’s a typically tough piece from him and you should read it. But as well as learning about the Balkans, you should take a moment to scroll through the comments left by other readers – a greater accumulation of bile it would be hard to find. Unless, that is, you take a look at comments on an earlier Korski op-ed on Kosovo.
Combined, the two pieces have garnered 87 comments. The vast majority take issue with Daniel’s thesis that Kosovo should be independent and the EU is right to back it. Like this:
I wonder how many people here would fall for the crap produced by characters like author of this column. Have you not realised, pal, that all your bullshit trying to twist illegal land grab (in the form of neo-colonisation via proxies and military bases) in a strategic position in Europe into something “noble” and “unique” is not swallowed so easily anymore. You are just a bunch of cynical criminals and murderers. Any wonder, then, that you support the biggest narco-mafia in Europe, and their newly found “state”? Well done there, but you are now exposed as liers, criminals and moral scum.
One can only presume that the collective “you” in this case must refer to the European Council on Foreign Relations, Mr. Korski’s current domicile, where I also have an affiliation. And, hey, I am quite a cynical person of variable morality, though I’m not in fact a murderer. (On a serious note, a quick glance at the ECFR site shows that the staff there have differing views on Kosovo, and it’s worth checking out this particularly thoughtful piece by Ulrike Guerot).
But back to the Guardian readers. They don’t all just hate Korski. Some hate the Serbs too. While I’ve been typing, the moderator has removed this comment by a Mr. (or Ms.) BugHunter:
Sorry, I just can’t work up any sympathy for the Serbs. Once again they show they aren’t ready to join the civilized world. The best thing for the region would be to turn Belgrade into a glass pavement.”
Well, that deserved to go. Though I’m not sure why it gets nixed while well-known South East Europe expert DancingSlag is allowed to get away with rank Islamophobia:
What about the historically important Christian sites in southern Kosovo? There are aged monks and nuns with no way of protecting themselves. We know what the Taliban did to the religiously significant Buddha statues in Afghanistan, so I suppose here comes some more cultural vandalism to witness.
I know that I shouldn’t be bothered by the sort of people who spend their days sticking this stuff on the web – and there are a few decent contributions amid the general pig-swill. But the sheer awfulness of this stuff reminded me of Alex’s recent post on George Packer’s despair at the standard of “informed” debate on Iraq in America:
What Packer describes is how participatory media can produce incoherence: chaos, disorder, cacophony, where the very idea of any objective truth is lost amidst the blizzard of commentary, opinion and white noise.
That now goes for Kosovo talk in the UK too.
by Mark Weston | Feb 22, 2008 | Africa, Economics and development
Reading Alex’s recent post on Kenya, I was reminded of a snippet I put on my own mini- and not-very-productive blog exactly two years ago today (excuse the blatant plug).
One of the “fundamental realities” that western governments engaged with Kenya “swept under the carpet” was, of course, corruption. Hillary Benn, then Britain’s Minister for International Development, knew about Kenyan corruption but let it pass. On his return from a trip to the country in 2006, he reported in a speech to the Royal African Society that, “In Kenya I met President Kibaki. We had a full and frank discussion, as they say, about the persistence of corruption. I made no secret of our concern. During the same visit, I also announced that we will be putting £55 million into improving education.” Or in other words, have some more money to feed your greed.
As I cynically implied back then, maybe Kibaki had learned the art of hoodwinking the west from the master of the craft, Joseph Mobutu.
by Alex Evans | Feb 22, 2008 | Conflict and security
Starting to think about booking that summer holiday? Looking for something a bit different? Look no further than the Strategist:
We’re familiar with tours for military history buffs to European and North American battlefields. But what about tours to the battlefields of the present and the future – the sites of messy, long-running and low intensity conflicts within decaying states?
And he’s not just idly kicking ideas around, either. As he relates, Reuters have news of opportunities for guerrilla tourism in Aceh:
As a rebel fighter, Marjuni Ibrahim hid out in Aceh’s jungle. These days he leads “guerrilla tours” taking visitors with a taste for extreme hiking and an interest in Aceh’s turbulent past over the same terrain … just as tourists in Vietnam can scramble through the Cu Chi tunnels used by the Vietcong in the Vietnam war, visitors to Aceh can see where the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) hid from or fought against the Indonesian army (TNI) until as recently as 2005 when the two sides signed a peace agreement.
Marjuni takes tourists on a scramble over sharp rocky trails, past teak trees cloaked in creepers, and alongside pristine waterfalls and sparkling rock pools. This part of Aceh is home to the endangered Sumatran tiger, deer, and hornbills, as well as rather less appealing leeches. “The area is very beautiful. I like trekking and I was interested to see what life was like during the conflict,” said Hugo Lamers, a Dutch aid worker who went on one of the guerrilla tours last year.
by David Steven | Feb 22, 2008 | Conflict and security
Lax security has already given the world one political martyr this year – let’s not have another one, eh?
Security details at Barack Obama’s rally Wednesday stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena.
The order to put down the metal detectors and stop checking purses and laptop bags came as a surprise to several Dallas police officers who said they believed it was a lapse in security.
Dallas Deputy Police Chief T.W. Lawrence, head of the Police Department’s homeland security and special operations divisions, said the order — apparently made by the U.S. Secret Service — was meant to speed up the long lines outside and fill the arena’s vacant seats before Obama came on.
“Sure,” said Lawrence, when asked if he was concerned by the great number of people who had gotten into the building without being checked. But, he added, the turnout of more than 17,000 people seemed to be a “friendly crowd.”
by Richard Gowan | Feb 21, 2008 | Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia
So, Kosovo is burning – but only a little. While protestors in Belgrade grab headlines by attacking the U.S. embassy, a rather more subtle game seems to be playing out in Serb-majority north Kosovo itself. There has been violence, with a series of assaults on UN vehicles and border posts, but it seems to be deliberately limited. When NATO forces turn up, the attackers typically pull back. There has been a notable (and welcome) lack of casualties.
Many Kosovo-watchers, myself included, had feared something worse: large-scale violence intended to inflict some high-profile humiliations on NATO, comparable to those achieved by Albanian rioters in March 2004. Then, many NATO troops retreated into their camps – the French general sent to rebuild the force admitted it had faced “defeat”. While UN and NATO officials don’t like to admit it, this shock created much of the momentum towards the province’s independence (you can find Kosovars who believe the whole thing was rigged by the CIA).
When I visited Kosovo last fall for the Annual Review of Global Peace Operations, it wasn’t hard to locate international officials who thought that the Serb minority would attempt to pull off a similar coup. In an unpublished note I wrote at the time, I reflected on the mood of gloom:
Ask international officials in Kosovo if they think the EU could navigate a crisis, and their response is dark: in a deteriorating security situation, it would not be long before European troops, police and civilians found themselves being shot and killed. The Europeans will have no choice but to lock the situation down. That’s the optimistic take. In the pessimistic version, NATO would wade in to evacuate at-risk internationals – but be unable to halt Serb-Albanian violence.
Some had even grimmer visions of how matters might unfold. Here’s one worst-case scenario penned at about the same time (source: anonymous):
First, stories appear of Kosovo Albanian atrocities against a Serbian family . “Look,” say the Serbs, “Kosovars – and NATO – cannot be trusted to protect us.” Then Kosovar Serbs “spontaneously” rise up to defend themselves from ethnic cleansing, catching the sleepy NATO mission off guard. The Serb army moves into Kosovo – occupying the Serb-dominated areas to save their brethren. Russian President Putin calls for a ceasefire. Belgrade then concedes independence for the rest of Kosovo on condition that northern Kosovo is annexed to Serbia.
And it’s possible that the current, low-to-mid-level violence is the prelude to just that sort of escalation. That’s what everyone seems to be telling the New York Times:
“The Serbs appear intent on provoking an Albanian reaction and to make the international community’s mission here impossible, but we will not allow legal partition,” said one senior EU diplomat. But another European diplomat said that if Serbs pursued de facto division, “there is not a lot that could be done.”
But it’s possible that we’ll get to de facto division without really big violence. In the lead-up to Kosovo’s independence declaration, NATO managed to get a lot of troops – including Americans, French and Germans – into the northern part of the province. These probably have the potential to react pretty effectively to any sustained attack by the Kosovo Serbs (and any incursion by the Serb army would be an open invitation to NATO to use air power). After all, the Chadian rebels who thought that they could frighten off the EU this month with a direct show of force were only temporarily successful – and a lot of them are now permanently dead.
But the Kosovo Serbs may be onto a cleverer strategy: a drip-drip of violence that tires out NATO without being sufficient to provoke retribution, and demonstrating that the international community doesn’t really control the north. As long as the protestors avoid inflicting any major casualties, it will be hard to get really tough with them – the headline “NATO forces cut off Serb right to free speech/protest” isn’t exactly an appealing one. Rather than leave the Europeans and U.S. “with no choice but to lock the situation down”, this sort of persistent trouble-making has the potential to corrode NATO’s sense of purpose. The Kosovo Serbs may be being very cunning. Or they may just be hoping for a bigger fight soon.
