by Charlie Edwards | Feb 15, 2008 | Middle East and North Africa
The current situation in Basra is extremely worrying. Consider the following:
- Local authorities in the city advise all civilians to stay at home after sunset. At night the city is almost in complete chaos with the market place a target of regular mortar attacks.
- Locals now do their own foot patrols in their neighbourhoods while militias and the Soldier of Heaven ‘cult’ roam the streets.
- Basra airport is under daily attack from mortars.
- Assassinations are rife. Around 15-20 bodies per day turn up at Basra morgue. Most have been killed by a gunshot wound to the head (worryingly from 9mm) . Some 15 per cent are women.
- The majority of sectarian killings are being committed by police elements.
- Iranian intelligence are making their presence felt.
I think we are going to see a lot more about Basra in the headlines in the next few weeks. Whitehall may well have its work cut out.
by Charlie Edwards | Feb 15, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity
A new study in the Science Journal shows human activity has left a mark on nearly every square kilometer of sea, severely compromising ecosystems in more than 40% of waters. Scientists have produced a global map of different activities including climate change, fishing, pollution and other human factors. The map is the first attempt to describe and quantify combined threats – the result is pretty harrowing.
by Charlie Edwards | Feb 14, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Influence and networks
Excellent comment piece in today’s FT on how the Pentagon needs to plan for climate change. According to the authors there are five key areas in which effective military planning can be undermined by uncertainty over when and how the major carbon-emitting countries combat climate change.
First, climate change poses a threat to fragile states that lack the capacity to adapt to environmental shifts. The Pentagon needs to know if the military will be called upon to operate more often in countries that have collapsed or are on the brink of doing so. The risk of a regional conflagration sparked by global warming is particularly severe in east Africa and south Asia. How urgently should the Pentagon begin planning for such contingencies?
Second, the US military needs to know how significantly to expand its capacity to act as a first responder in times of natural disaster. Climate change will increase the frequency of large-scale disasters over the next three decades. But the scope of this threat will vary depending on what action is taken to minimise emissions. Although some of the emergencies created or exacerbated by climate change may be managed by the UN, the US military has an unrivalled capacity to act as a first responder in these situations.
Recall the Indian Ocean tsunami that struck a little more than three years ago: only the US could or would so rapidly have deployed and sustained the 15,000 troops, two dozen ships and 100 aircraft needed for the mission. But if the US military anticipates being called upon more often to respond to such disasters then it needs clarity about how soon it should invest more resources into planning such missions.
Third, the US military will have to conduct traditional missions in increasingly adverse weather conditions. Planners must decide how soon to invest in equipment that works better in storms, floods and other hostile climates.
(more…)
by Charlie Edwards | Feb 13, 2008 | Influence and networks, UK
Last November Alex posted about Brown’s woes inside the No.10 bunker. Sue Cameron is back today with more insights into life in Downing St.
The trouble with Gordon Brown’s Number 10 is that you never know whether you are watching a farce or a tragedy. The Downing Street machine is so elaborate as to be positively baroque – yet somehow Mr Brown cannot find the levers that will give it lift-off. He and his minions – there are well over 200 people in the prime minister’s office – appear as characters in search of a strategy. Which is where the farce emerges.
Consider: Mr Brown has just appointed outside communications expert Stephen Carter as his chief of strategy. Beneath Mr Carter is Spencer Livermore, who is director of political strategy in the prime minister’s office. Then there is Nick Pearce, who is head of strategic policy at the PM’s policy unit, which is based in the Treasury and is answerable to both Mr Brown and to Alistair Darling, the chancellor. (Do concentrate at the back.)
There is also an entire strategy unit – with 42 staff – headed by Stephen Aldridge. This outpost of the Cabinet Office, housed in Admiralty Arch, provides strategy and policy advice to the PM. It assists other departments “in developing effective strategies . . . including helping them to build their strategic capability”.
Now Number 10 is looking for more top spinners to beef up its strategic communications unit (no, this is quite separate from any of the other strategy chiefs, directors, units etc mentioned above).
I’m told its remit will be to take a long-term strategic view (what else?) as to how Mr Brown can “put together a coherent and consistent story”. There is the rub. As one minister put it: “With Blair I always knew what the story was – with Gordon I haven’t a clue what the bloody story is.”
One of those reportedly approached to strengthen the PM’s team is Luke Swanson, head of communications at Pearson, which owns the FT. Mr Swanson says: “We never comment about ‘people’ things.”
“It’s all throat-clearing,” says one sceptic. “They are avoiding doing anything.” Which may be the tragedy. Mr Brown with his brilliant mind risks being trapped in a cruel, Kafka-esque Whitehall web where he cannot move.
by Charlie Edwards | Feb 13, 2008 | Influence and networks, Off topic
Useful map for presentations.
