If you ever have to choose a country for your worst enemy to run, you should strongly consider Turkey.
Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, the current Turkish Prime Minister (known to both friends and enemies simply as Tayyip), is in the US asking for help in controlling the Kurdish rebels who are attacking his country from northern Iraq. Tayyip’s instincts are not to invade – he knows the operation is unlikely to succeed, and that what the Kurds need is “more democracy”, not more oppression. But Turkish public opinion, fanned by nationalist paranoia, is bellicose and the army is determined to invade in a bid to claw back some of its diminishing clout.
Tayyip has other balancing acts to grapple with too. Take Europe, which he has steered Turkey towards by giving more rights to Kurds and reducing the army’s power, but which unhelpfully keeps raising the bar for entry. Europe’s duplicity offends Turkish pride (yes, that nationalistic streak again), so Tayyip is forced to use the prospect of stronger ties with Iran and Syria as a negotiating weapon.
Turning east, however, exacerbates his other main problem – persuading Turks that he won’t turn their country into an Islamic theocracy. The close relationship between Erdo?an’s AK Party predecessor Necmettin Erbakan and Iran is one of the main arguments used by secular Turks to prove the current encumbent’s hidden intentions. Any sign that Tayyip wants similar proximity sends them scurrying to the army to safeguard their secular traditions. This strengthens the generals, whose involvement in politics is already too strong for the EU’s liking and whose eagerness to invade Iraq could rupture Tayyip’s relationship with the US.
Fortunately, although the evidence that he is a closet fundamentalist is flimsy, Tayyip nevertheless has God on his side. As he told the Times last month, “Sometimes it has to be a case of ‘God give me patience'”. In dealing with these multiple vicious circles, who would begrudge him a bit of otherworldly help?
